By now, those who have been following my columns on these here blogs are already aware that I swim against the current a lot; so this prediction will be no surprise to many. Over the years I have made some gutsy calls on many levels; my success rate is high (but not perfect/lol). I am predicting that Barack Obama will win the Iowa caucuses on January 3rd, next year. I also predict that it won’t even be close.
Look, before you read too much into my prediction, let me be clear: I am not predicting (as yet) that he will be the presidential nominee for the democrats in 2008; neither am I predicting at this time that he will win the New Hampshire primary a few days after Iowa. All I am saying is that he will handily become the Iowa caucus choice. And yes, I do hope that he wins the democrat’s nomination on his way to the winning the presidency; but in terms of thinking: that’s more wishful than cerebral.
Right now, I will not expound beyond this: there are dynamic things taking place on the ground in Iowa that will be revealed over the next six weeks. An Obama victory will be surprising to many; even to some of those who support him now. What happens after Iowa is still befuddling to me; at the azimuth of my crystal ball there are ominous clouds that I can’t fathom. It troubles me to think that race (racism) will eventually play a role- larger than it’s already playing- in this presidential contest. This causes me great concern.
Iowa is a state of roughly 3 million people. Nineteen out of every twenty residents of this state happen to be white. Blacks and mulattoes (like Obama) make up roughly one in every thirty. So why would a political writer like I go out on a limb and make such a prediction; especially given these demographics? Am I risking my credibility on these here blogs? Am I back to messing with the same green stuff Barack did? Or am I one of the best political analysts on New York’s blogs? You readers will surely tell me in the comment section (as you normally do/lol).
Look, time will eventually reveal everything to all of us. Plus, there are some things I now know that I cannot share at this point; so don’t ask for more than this morsel, please.
Yesterday was Thanksgiving Day here in the good ole US of A, and for the first time ever I chose to forego a formal dinner (six feet, one inch/ an overweight 235 lbs/I am). I think that we sometimes need to step back from routines and rituals in order to inspect, circumspect, introspect and retrospect; I did that most of the day. Now I can make two predictions on reflection.
I also predict that before we end the second decade of this new millennium, the roles of the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary will be much less significant in selecting the president of this country, than they are this year, and as they were in previous years; relative to primaries, caucuses and conventions. Eventually common sense will transcend tradition, and the disproportionate influence over presidential choices that Iowa and New Hampshire have held hostage for decades, will be reduced to fit their physical sizes, population numbers and demographics (racial and ethnic make-up et al). This all starts next January, when a mulatto (Obama) wins Iowa for the first time in the history of these here dis-United States. Don’t say Cousin Rocky didn’t tell you first.
And yes: I am taking bets (odds too).
Stay tuned-in folks. Politics has become the only real game in town.