The possibility that Congressman Anthony Weiner might not run for Mayor has stirred up speculation about how this might negatively impact turnout in this year’s Democratic Primary. And that has led to talk about which candidates would be helped and hurt by less people voting.
Azi Paybarah on Politickerny.com quotes Joe Mercurio and me about this
http://www.politickerny.com/2463/without-weiner-turnout-could-drop-democratic-primary
(BTW, as a clarification to what Azi wrote, I said that normally a lower turnout helps those who are well-known or have organizational support and that Mark Green is now the most well known. I did not say he would receive the most organizational support.)
To help understand what the likely turnout will be, I thought it would be helpful to go back to Democratic Primaries in the past and examine the turnout numbers and the reasons for them
I start with 1973, the beginning of the present system where Citywide candidates must receive 40% of the vote or more to avoid a Runoff.
That year, there were 4 candidates for the Democratic nomination, each representing one of the City’s major voting blocs – Comptroller Abraham Beame, Congressman Herman Badillo, Congressman Mario Biaggi & Assemblyman Albert Blumenthal. 783,133 votes were cast in that Primary.
1977
Because of the City’s fiscal crisis, Beame was correctly considered very vulnerable. He had 6 opponents – – Herman Badillo trying again, Congressman Ed Koch, Secretary of State Mario Cuomo, former Congresswoman Bella Abzug , Manhattan Borough President Percy Sutton, civic leader Joel Harnett.
With each major segment of the electorate with someone to vote for, the turnout was large 909,502.
1981
Koch had sky high poll numbers and his opponents were not taken seriously. His major opponent was Assemblyman Frank Barbaro. Turnout dropped to 581,072, largely because everyone assumed Koch was unbeatable
1985
Koch was again considered unbeatable but his opponents were taken more seriously than Barbaro – City Council President Carol Bellamy and Assemblyman Denny Farrell. Plus Koch spent more than twice as much money than he did in 1981. The turnout crept up to 681,954.
1989
Koch’s re-election was in great danger thanks to the Parking Violations Bureau scandal, his widely criticized attacks on Jesse Jackson in 1988, the changing electorate and a general fatigue with him.
Koch had 3 serious Primary opponents, Manhattan Borough President David Dinkins, Comptroller Harrison Goldin, and former MTA Chairman Richard Ravitch
A serious contest and the chance to make history by either electing the first Black Mayor or the first 4 term Mayor increased turnout to 1,080,557.
This was also the first campaign with public financing.
1993
Mayor Dinkins’ real challenge for re-election was in November when he was defeated by Rudy Giuliani. However, he did have 2 Primary opponents – Roy Innis, the conservative civil rights leader, who despite his support of Republicans over the years was a registered Democrat and an unknown civil servant named Eric Ruano Melendez.
Nobody paid much attention to the Primary and only 482,069 voters took part.
1997
Giuliani was considered certain of re-election, so there was not much interest paid to the Democratic Primary and only 411,458 Democrats voted. Manhattan Borough President Ruth Messinger, Rev. Al Sharpton, Councilman Sal Albanese and 2 fringe candidates ran.
2001
Almost everyone assumed that after eight years of Giuliani, the winner of the Democratic Primary would be sure to win in November. Hence the turnout increased to 781,110, despite the Primary being postponed from September 11 because of the Bin-Laden attacks. As in 1973, some of the major voting blocs had candidates – Bronx Borough President Ferrer, Public Advocate Mark Green, Council Speaker Peter Vallone and Comptroller Alan Hevesi + George Spitz.
2005
The most recent Mayoral Primary was in similar to 1997, as most voters thought that whoever won the Democratic Primary was destined to lose to the Republican Mayor in November. So the turnout for Ferrer, Congressman Anthony Weiner, Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields & Councilman Speaker Gifford Miller dropped to 478,665