On Friday, three days after the his Marist Poll was shown to be off by a significant margin in the New York City Mayoral Election for the second election in a row, poll director Lee Miringoff claims an unreleased poll was actually right!
A Marist poll completed the day before the election but never made public showed “a continuation of the trend we saw in the previous week” with “Democrats and African-Americans coming home,” said pollster Lee Miringoff.
Miringoff said the poll also showed “Bloomberg’s numbers had this low-50s element.”
Why are we supposed to believe him? Miringoff refuses to release those poll results and in the last Marist poll, he not only gave no hint of the possibility that there was a trend toward Thompson and way from Bloomberg but instead stressed how few voters might change their mind.
The race for New York City mayor is in the homestretch, and if today were Election Day, Mayor Michael Bloomberg would handily win a third term. Bloomberg currently leads Democratic challenger Bill Thompson — 53% to 38% — among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Bloomberg’s lead among likely voters is consistent with the results of a Marist survey last week when Bloomberg received 52% to Thompson’s 36%.
75% of likely voters citywide say they will not waver when it comes to their choice of candidate. An additional 20% report, regardless of whom they are planning to support, they are somewhat committed to their pick, and just 4% say they might change their minds before Tuesday.
The proportion of likely voters who strongly back their choice of candidate has grown since Marist last asked voters about their intensity of support.
Mayor Bloomberg’s favorability rating is on solid ground. 61% of registered voters say they have a positive view of the mayor while 32% of voters report they have an unflattering opinion of the mayor. These proportions are little changed from Marist’s previous poll when 63% rated the mayor favorably and 33% had a negative perception of him.
There are a lot of reasons – low turnout, undecided voters breaking toward Thompson, voters lying, cell phones, etc, why Marist overrated Mike’s chances. But apparently, Miringoff can’t admit they got it wrong. Instead he announces a secret poll. Well I’m not buying it unless he releases the numbers.