Though Bloomie had succeeded in banning tobacco in bars years ago, this was not going to stop Pablo Perroguía from trying to blow smoke up my ass during our trip to the Waterfront Alehouse.
Pablo was brilliant, and he was abrasive enough to make you believe he was talking straight, even when his words resembled Tony Seminerio in their integrity. Many time he had come bearing ideas with dollars signs to be realized at the end of Gatey‘s rainbow, though the pots of gold had never materialized.
Once more, I was dubious about the line he was peddling, this time about State Senator Marty Golden.
PABLO: What I was thinking is whether you as the sage Brooklyn observer/activist would sort of call out the guy who spent over a million dollars against an opponent who spent $17K, and only got 66 percent of the vote. The guy who won his seat because of party backstabbing and who spent $3 million on his first race. The guy who plows a lot of campaign cash back into the family catering hall, and the guy who keeps screwing over NYC labor.
The guy never had a race, just like Maltese and Padavan, and when people finally got their shit together, the Republicans representing Democratic districts started to fall. Marty’s next. First Maltese, then Padavan, then Golden. Like dominoes.”
Although I regard screwing over labor as, at worst, a mixed bag, I wanted to believe the general thrust. But what I was really hearing were some cynical machinations which Pablo was giving off with his body language; to wit:
“I am theorizing that if someone with credibility–you–wrote the piece, we could move it around to the Legislative Correspondents’ Association and other reporters as authoritative, so they understand he actually is vulnerable if we –or anyone–can answer the question of “who’s the candidate.”
It’s not that I’ve never carried a contract, but I don’t like risking my credibility on things that are demonstrably untrue.
But suddenly, I realized that behind the smoke being blown up my ass, there might be fire.
Pablo’s words echoed almost in their entirety some thoughts I’d heard from a Republican activist from Bay Ridge at lunch one day at Armando’s:
TIMMY MCKENNEDY: Golden had the support of every union, and the tacit support of virtually every Democratic club and official, except for those, and there were plenty, who were supporting him openly, and he spent a million dollars running against the worst possible candidate; a gay left wing ideologue in his twenties who looked twelve and had no money, outspending the kid at least 30 to one, in the best Republican year since Reagan‘s re-election, in a district where the national Republican party was doing a targeted Republican pull, and he couldn’t manage to get two out of three votes.
It was true, Marty Golden was not all that strong; the proof was that he expended an awful lot of energy blowing smoke up people’s asses himself. He found it an operational necessity to scare Democrats about the consequences of running someone against him, lest they make a real effort and scare him half to death.
Poor Mike Di Santo had been beaten by almost two to one and had spent less than a dollar on his every vote; Marty Golden had spent over $35 bucks on each of his. With a real candidate with his own base and club support from those Democrats who actually were Democrats (slightly over half the clubs in the district), a majority of labor support and some real labor effort with that, and a better year, and Marty Golden could really sweat.
The last time Golden had a real race, 2002, he got less than 55% in a very Republican year (Carl McCall got creamed by George Pataki in the district). In that year, a County Leader universally despised by the local leaders in the District gave Golden's opponent pro forma support because there was no real reason for his enthusiasm.
What could he bring home?
As much as Vito Lopez might love Marty Golden (a lot), he loves patronage more and John Sampson is plausibly coming back as leader with a plate full of goodies to bestow among the locals and elsewhere in the County. A credible candidate could yield a credible Democratic organizational effort.
Even more importantly, the district, like Maltese’s and Padavan’s, has changed a lot over the last decade. Latino population has risen significantly and Asian population has risen exponentially; Bay Ridge has become full of Yuppies and even gays. Golden’s white Christian base is rapidly becoming history.
Orthodox Jews and Russians have increased, and are becoming increasingly Republican, but are still nominally Democrats, and are vulnerable to raids by the right Democrat under the right circumstances. The Republicans control the Senate reapportionment, and without the need to also protect Carl Kruger, as they did last time, they are free to let Golden have whatever district he wants.
But there are limits. One still must work with the population as it exists. The route of least resistance might be to bulk up on Russians and/or Orthodox, but glomming too many might entail being challenged by one of them.
Movement into other potentially friendly areas entails the risk of accidentally picking up the house of a term-limited Dominic Recchia, Mike Nelson or Lew Fidler, all of whom have support way beyond the Democratic base and an ability to raise mucho dinero.
And staying put has its own risks. But one can only get rid of so much of Bay Ridge without getting rid of one’s house–and given Bay Ridge’s history, and anger. it seems likely that Golden will have to pick up more (and more Democratic areas) of it, rather than shed some of what he has.
Marty Golden can get whatever district he wants, but the pickings he can chose among are slim and getting slimmer all the time.
The fact is that Pablo was not blowing smoke; with the right candidate, in the right year, Golden would have a real race.
The right year will surely come in the next decade, and given the population trends, at some point it won’t even take the “right” candidate.
But given Golden's association with Carl Kriger's troubles, Brooklyncbeing Brooklyn, and the anger of labor, we may not even have to wait that long.
Golden may very well be in trouble.