SIENNA POLLSTER STEVEN GREENBERG: “Democrat Weprin holds a small six-point lead over Republican Turner in a district where there are more than three times as many Democrats as Republicans…While Weprin holds a two-to-one advantage over Turner with Democrats, Turner has a nearly six-to-one lead among Republicans and a slim four-point lead with independent voters. Queens voters favor Weprin by 10 points, while Brooklyn voters, who account for about one-third of the district, support Turner by a six-point margin….
,,,Men are currently evenly divided, and women give Weprin an 11-point advantage. While voters under 55-years-of-age give Weprin a big lead, voters 55 and older – a crucial voting bloc, particularly in a special election – are virtually evenly divided. Catholic voters give a big edge to Turner, while Jewish voters give an equally big edge to Weprin. At the moment, Turner voters appear to be more committed to their candidate, with 60 percent saying they are absolutely certain to support him. Only 47 percent of Weprin voters say there is no chance they will change their mind….
…Turner and Weprin have virtually identical favorability ratings, with nearly half of likely voters not knowing enough about either candidate to have an opinion. Each is viewed favorably by 31 percent of voters, with Weprin having a slightly higher unfavorable rating, 24 percent, than Turner, 20 percent,,,Weprin has a two-to-one favorable rating with Democrats and a two-to-one unfavorable rating with Republicans. More independent voters view him unfavorably than favorably. Turner is viewed favorably by a plurality of Democrats and independents and has a four-to-one favorability rating with Republicans…
,,,In a district with far more Democrats than Republicans, Turner is garnering the support of nearly one-third of Democrats. He will have to do at least that well on Election Day to have a chance to win, while Weprin will need to bring ‘Democrats back home’ if he wants to crack the 50 percent mark. This figures to be an interesting five weeks, so stay tuned. Siena will take another look as Election Day nears…”
This poll is widely seen a shocking.
Why did no one see this coming?
Well, someone did…
GATEMOUTH (12/31/10): So what did this mean in New York?
It meant that, to a large extent, Orthodox Jew repudiated the Democratic Party lock, stock and pickle barrel….
…the 48th AD backed Paladino, DioGuardi, Wilson, Donovan and the Republican candidate for Civil Court. Chuck Schumer took his Senate race by a not too impressive 53.36% to 45.89%. I would also cite Assemblyman Dov Hikind’s relative unimpressive (for him) victory with 65.20%, except that his opponent seems to have been strongest in the White Christian Bay Ridge and Dyker Heights portions of the district.
As noted, the 45th AD backed DioGuardi, Wilson, Donovan and the Republican candidate for Civil Court. Cuomo did break 55% here, but while the 48th is overwhelming ultra-Orthodox, the 45th also includes various more modern groups, as well as Syrians and other Sephardim, and less religious, but often politically similar Russian Jews, all of whom were even more likely to be put off by the Paladino/Levin circus. Still, this area, which Chuck Schumer once represented in the Assembly, managed to yield its former homeboy a hardly resounding 57.60% victory in his re-election…
…We turn now to Congress… In Anthony Weiner’s race, his opponent, Robert Turner, actually ran a race, which was largely ignored by the press. Turner took 39.14%. Now, I am not going to claim that Turner got all those votes from Orthodox Jews; he clearly targeted conservative White Christian areas and rampaged through communities like Marine Park and Gerritsen Beach.
But Turner targeted the Orthodox as well, and it worked.
In the 48th, Turner beat Weiner 50.90% to 49.10% and in the 45th, he won 50.15% to 49.81%.
This is jaw dropping.
Weiner is a Citywide figure who these voters once backed for Mayor. Unlike Nadler, who is at the right end of left Zionism, Weiner’s buff card could accurately read “Likud.” If there was ever a member of Congress to have taken the necessary steps to insulate himself from an Orthodox revolt, it was Tony Weiner.
But, it is more than that.
Not only has Weiner represented most of these voters in Congress for nearly a decade and a half, but these voters largely track the original district that elected Anthony Weiner to the New York City Council in 1991.
In other words, Anthony Weiner was this year rejected by the voters who know him the best and for the longest.
That is a pretty profound message…
…Am I saying Orthodox voters are permanently lost to the Republicans?
Not yet. Factors like the GOP running a boob for Governor do have an impact and can help the Dems.
What I am saying is that Orthodox Jews hate Barack Obama and the Republican are poised to take advantage of it down ballot in a big way.
GATEMOUTH (6/1/11): Yglesias makes fun of the idea a Republican could beat Weiner, but the GOP candidate just got 39% on a shoe string budget, and the district becomes more Russian and more Orthodox with every day
GATEMOUTH (6/6/11): Perhaps if Weiner represented a safe seat in a state not losing seats he could recede for a few years onto a back bench, and bide his time until the bad taste went away.
But Weiner represents a marginal seat in a state losing representation.
As I was probably the first to point out, Weiner’s district is no longer that strong for the Democrats, and the demographic trends are heading south (as in Red State). To the extent it was not marginal; it was because of Weiner's personal popularity, which I submit has been squandered.
Republicans have now noticed. As I noted on my Facebook page this weekend:
“What amazes me is that every article, whether left or right, opining on Weiner's strength or weakness in his district, fails to account that such a district, to the extent it still exists, will have different lines come next election. Besides that, the article overstates His 2010 GOP opponent’s vote (39%) by 2 points. “…
…Weiner's resigning would could additional damage.
A resignation would lead to a special election under the worst circumstances (resignation by scandal and the Obama/Israel controversy at its hottest)…
GATEMOUTH (6/24/11): As I’ve noted before, Republicans have already made strong showings in this areas and have also improved their standing nationally among Jewish voters, especially the Orthodox and Russians.
There are several reasons for this, and Israel is very prominent among them.
I think Orthodox and Russian voters last year were, in part, voting against Democrats–even demonstrably right wing Zionist types, like Anthony Weiner, to send a message about Israel.
And recent statements by the President have made things worse.
Every administration has given lip service to the idea that Israel should not further expand its West Bank Settlements, but none, not even the fairly Arabist George H.W. Bush, nor Bill Clinton, who negotiated the return of nearly the entire West Bank, ever actually took any concrete steps to see that America’s position on was implemented on the ground before negotiations were completed.
Obama did.
I do not see Obama’s policy as a bad thing. Israel cannot continue as a state both Jewish and democratic if it continues to hold these territories. The settlements are not the cause of the conflict; other issue must be resolved first before there is peace. But once there is a resolution, the settlements are an impediment to implementation of any workable solution. Their further expansion makes resolution of a solution even more difficult, and at some point, it may make it impossible.
And that would be the death of Israel.
I find Obama perhaps overoptimistic about the prospects for a solution, I sometimes cringe at some of his rhetoric, and I don’t necessarily agree with each and every detail of what he’s done, but in the broad sense, it is hard to argue that he is wrong.
And most American Jews would appear to agree; according to the Forward’s JJ Goldberg:
“Obama, despite all the thunder and lightning around him, didn’t ring many bells. Israelis might not like the president’s hard-nosed stand on settlements, but American Jews don’t agree. Both of the post-election surveys actually gave him high marks for his performance in Israel and Middle East affairs. J Street found solid Jewish support for a two-state solution and for vigorous American leadership to bring the parties together — even if it means pressuring the two sides or openly criticizing Israel.”
The political problem is multi-dimensional.
The first dimension is that a significant minority of the Jewish community does not agree. And that minority is overrepresented in the 9th Congressional District, where it might not even be a minority.
The second is that those who do agree with Obama don’t care as much.
Some of this is just lack of enthusiasm for their own position. Like me, they don’t like all the Obama bells and whistles. Or they know Obama’s right, but prefer the Alan Dershowitz position of opposing the settlements, but not actually wanting to do anything about it. Or they oppose the settlements, but still want to bomb Iran.
More importantly, they don’t care enough to vote on that basis.
Jews who are support liberal Zionist positions are often unwilling to punish candidates who hold anti-Israel positions. Further, they are often unwilling to punish candidates who hold right-wing Zionist positions (see Weiner).
Many just care more about other issues.
The upshot is that Obama’s position on Israel may be the more popular one in the Jewish community, but it won’t get him any votes.
It only loses him votes, and it loses them for other Democrats as well.
A J Street poll says that Democrats won the votes of Jews who consider Israel the most important tissue by a margin of only 53% to 42%. Those who discuss Israel every week supported Democrats by a margin of 50% to 48%.
And this is not exclusively an Orthodox phenomenon.
Even with the Orthodox excluded, the J Street poll showed Jews who considered Israel the most important issue supported Democrats by lackadaisical margins; among Non-Orthodox Jews who discuss Israel every week, Democrats won by a margin of 54% to 44%.
Now move this phenomenon to an area with heavy Orthodox and Russian populations, and add in a special election with nothing on the ballot but judicial races (except for two Assembly specials–one a snoozer; the other, in the Rockaways and vicinity, with a strong Republican bringing out Irish Breezy Point and Broad Channel Republicans, while the Dems are stuck with a guy whose base is in a different Congressional District).
Orthodox Jews daven twice a day; they are easy to pull. And they are raring to send President Obama a message.
Everyone else may still be away on vacation…
…And without a strong Orthodox and Russian Jewish vote, there is no GOP scenario for victory in this district.
GATEMOUTH (7/7/11): this race is still losable ….To refresh, John McCain got 44% of the vote here (the only Congressional district in the State where Obama did worse than John Kerry) even before the administration’s pronouncements on Israel caused further attrition in support for Democrats among Orthodox and Russian Jews, both of whom are plentiful in this district.
In 2010, Robert Turner, the Republican running against Anthony Weiner got nearly 40% here, beating Weiner in many Russian and Orthodox areas, despite Weiner’s hardline positions on Israel, which were to the right of Bibi Netanyahu’s.
I suspect some Jews here would vote for an anti-Israel Republican like Ron Paul or Pat Buchanan against a far right Zionist Democrat like Dov Hikind, just to send the President a message about Israel.
A Couple of other points are also salient:
GATEMOUTH (10/31/10): As to the national elections…given the GOP’s near unanimous inability to ever breaks ranks for the good of the country, even on issues upon which they agree with the President, the time has come for the public to say “enough is enough.”
Unfortunately, the public will almost surely be saying it to the wrong people.
The failures of the Democrats have sometimes been of guts and courage, more so of strategy and tactics, more often than that of salesmanship, but in the end they amount to politics being the art of the possible, and the limits of possibility under the circumstances.
The failure of the Republicans sometimes stem from ideological fanaticism, but mostly owe to a belief that failure of our nation in the short run is for the greater good, if not for their country, then for themselves.
Henry Kissinger used to engage in plateau bargaining, the art of having someone agree to your terms and then asking for more; today’s Republicans abhor plateau bargaining–the last thing they want is agreement.
Obama has put forth a health plan combining features originally proposed by Bob Dole and Mitt Romney; he has put forth a carbon restriction bill based totally on market-oriented Republican principles; he's cut taxes; he’s appointed a bi-partisan deficit reduction commission almost certain to put forth a plan less palatable to Democrats than Republicans; he adopted George W. Bush‘s bank bailout, auto industry bail out and immigration reform plans. He’ not precipitously withdrawn troops anywhere we have them, and actually expanded some.
No president in decades has reached out more than Barack Obama, and for his troubles he’s been branded as a foreign socialist Muslim.
GATEMOUTH (11/15/10): The Democratic Party’s greatest attrition in support this year came from senior citizens, the only element of the population currently benefiting from socialized medicine and scared to death by the Republican Party into believing that someone might actually try to ensure their care is provided in a rational, cost-effective manner.
The Republicans, who seek draconian cuts in all Domestic spending affecting those who vote at lower rates than those over 65, are so opposed to looking at Medicare–the single greatest hole in the deficit, that they oppose diverting any possible recoverable wasted Medicare funds to either deficit reduction or other programs….
…And they rail about death panels and other manner of obscenities.
As Jews assimilate, “ they are going to act like [other white people], or at least those “white people” with whom they have the greatest cultural commonality,”… in Palm Beach and Broward counties, that meant acting like other senior citizens to a greater extent than in years past.
I’ve almost literally been crying out about this like Jeremiah for months, encountering mostly snarky sarcasm from those on the left. Even after the release of this poll, this article on Daily Kos, and the thread which follows it, indicate the left‘s response veers somewhere between apathy and Panglossian delusion.
In the wake of the Ryan plan and the Hochul victory, the Republican narrative which so scared the seniors was dying an ignominious death, until Anthony Weiner interrupted the new narrative.
Still, Bob Turner, a Tea Party Republican, who wanted to cut the Federal budget 35%, has, thanks to Ed Koch, has been given cover concerning the Ryan plan to end Medicare as we know it, and has been allowed to go back to scaring seniors about “ObamaCare” as if Ryan never existed.
And, in case no one has noted, the economic news really sucks.
As I’ve said, again and again, this race is losable.
In fact, it is MORE losable than the polls indicate.
Ultra-Orthodox Jews and Russians are notoriously hard to poll, and are surely unrepresented in the results.
It is about time someone besides me (and Colin Campbell) started paying attention.