There are many who are getting a sense of deja vu about the Obama Presidency. Like President Jimmy Carter, President Obama is dealing with quagmires that have built up over many years that will make the American people worse off for some time to come. The weight of those challenges, and the unwillingness of Congress to impose the measures needed to turn things around, is making him seem hapless and impotent. Moreover President Obama underestimated just how rotten our economy has become at its core, and what a hard slog it will be to find a bottom. The measures he managed to get passed were conventional measures for a conventional recession, not an economic structure in collapse at the end of a 30-year debt binge. That 30 year era followed another era that collapsed under President Carter.
But Jimmy Carter had a Democratic congress, whereas Barack Obama is facing a Republican congress. That makes his situation more like that of President Harry Truman, whose term I didn’t live through personally but read about in the award winning book. Truman was unpopular due to the problems in the country, including a far more brutal war than the one we are in, and yet could run against a “do nothing Congress.” At the time, as well, part of the Republican Party had fallen into McCarthyism. You can’t say politics today are more divisive than that. To put on a respectable face the Republicans nominated a respected and reasonable figure, Thomas E. Dewey, the Mitt Romney of his day, but Truman won anyway.
I said back in 2004 that the Democrats should consider themselves lucky Kerry lost that election, given what was coming in the economy. Well the debt binge went on a lot longer than I thought it would, and almost lasted through the second Bush term, but in the end I was right. Similarly, the Republicans may come to regret taking the House in 2010.