Orthodox Pundit has practically baited me into responding to his story about the supposed "poll" conducted by "Innovation PAC" in the 7th CD Congressional race.
My first quibble is that Innovation PAC is an advocacy group which has targeted Velazquez, and that polls conducted by advocacy groups to advance their agenda are inherently suspect (for a detailed discussion as to why, I refer you to this Chait column).
Reports of polls based upon cherry picking data they won't let you see in its true context is even more suspect.
Further, I am not overly impressed with the conclusion offered that Velazquez is vulnerable because 20% of the district has no opinion of her; given that 29% of the district is new to her, that level of name recognition would seem to be extremely impressive.
As to O'Connor's name recognition being better than Dilan's, I find this highly suspect.
People named Dilan serve as elected and/or party officials for a significant portion of the district, while Dan O'Connor has, at best, spent a few thousand dollars in the course of a few months.
I live in the district, and am a prime voter, and I've had no communication of any sort from either.
However, during the last three decades, a former State Senator named Martin Connor has represented at some point a majority of the district, and in the last decade had two hotly contested primaries in which he got 46-55% of the vote, so perhaps Dan has benefitted from Marty's coattails.
As to the suggestion that I called O'Connor a straw man, I have stated from the get go that I do not believe Dan O'Connor was put in the race by Lopez.
What I originally said is that Lopez's people had been covertly giving O'Connor back door help.
This is no longer true.
As Chris Bragg got them to admit when following up my original piece, Lopez’s people are now doing helping O’Connor openly and admitting to it.
Is O'Connor stronger than Dilan?
Given the facts on the ground in Lopez's Assembly District and the various political realms of the Dilan family, the power of the Lopez social services empire and its interlocking directorates, the money raising and troop delivering ability of the County Leader when he cares, the connections of both Lopez and Dilan (who both chair Housing Committees) among Housing project leaders, and the support for Dilan among the unpollable Zali Satmar, I have to believe that, even in the unlikely event that the "poll" is correct (maybe that Marty Connor mistaken identity does translate in to actual votes), the facts on the ground are such Dilan will outpoll O'Connor many times over.http://orthodoxpundit.blogspot.com/#!/2012/04/surprising-poll-dilan-comes-in-close.html Orthodox Pundit: News & Political Analysis
The Mysterious Dr. Mittman does not seem to know whether he's in or out.
Good thing he's an allergist rather than a proctologist, but perhaps he should treat himself so he can break out of his quarantine of the press and public. Robert Mittman Drops NY-6 Candidacy, Could Still Be On Ballot [UPDATED] | City and State www.cityandstateny.com
A rally for John Liu? The last time I saw a rally like this, it was held for Clarence Norman.
Will Major Owens again be present to condemn the investigation of Liu as another "Rynching"? (I guess we should ask Bill Rynch). http://www.capitaltonight.com/2012/04/support-rally-for-liu/ www.capitaltonight.com
An occupational hazard of being an elected official is that you will invariably do some real good for someone deserving, whether or not you even care about such things.
Since this is usually the result of self interest, we should not regard it is a sign of good character (rather than industriousness).
So, I don't think Carl Kruger gets many points for his occasional good works.
I've expressed my own bittersweet regrets about the changes embodied by Kruger's fall, but, as I’ve said before, there was nothing ambiguous or fuzzy about Carl Kruger. Kruger’s case was not about the “criminalization of politics.”
Carl Kruger politicized criminality. Kruger justified a cynical belief that “they are all crooks.” Such a belief, when widely held, only makes things worse. If one believes they are all criminals, nothing shocks. If one believes they are all criminals, government can never be justified as a means for doing good. That is Carl Kruger’s biggest crime.
As the late Bernie Catcher might have said, "as ye sew, so shall ye weap." Carl Kruger Is a Fallen Politician Sympathetic Unto Himself www.nytimes.com
The Albany Project celebrates the demise of Kruger, but still managed to avoid even one mention of the race to choose his successor. the albany project:: Justice www.thealbanyproject.com
A local Democratic operative tells me that an order has been placed with a local printer for "Storobin for Assembly" posters.
I suspect the order has been placed by Nachman Caller (personal to Hoe Hayon: this is what is known as a “joke.” You are supposed to respond by laughing, not by calling Caller to get an on the record denial).
I understand the ideological/partisan rationale for disgruntled members of the GOP not to lie down for Simcha Felder. But it is message best delivered by a Haredi candidate.
David Storobin's delusion that he got his Orthodox votes because of a special fondness for him personally is one I can't wait to see dispelled. So, I withdraw my advice David.
Go; run for State Senate in the Goldineh Ghetto; please, please please do so!
Make my day. Storobin and Caller Meet to Discuss Campaign www.politicker.com
An indication that even within the cramped confines of a GOP primary, Orthodox Jews might outnumber Russians in the new Super Jewish State Senate seat. Nachman Caller’s Non-Profit Registers Borough Park Republicans | City and State www.cityandstateny.com
Unlike Diane Savino, the complaining Democratic Senators who put the kibosh on Paul Rivera's $50,000 raise had the standing to do so, as the money came out of the payroll allocation for the Conference which they belonged to.
Further, it's unfair to say that those Senators killed the raise solely in response to bad press, since at least one of them undoubtedly dropped the dime in the first place. John Sampson KOs 50G raise to aide Paul Rivera www.nydailynews.com
Carlo Scissura finally finds a way to avoid losing an election. http://www.brooklyndaily.com/stories/2012/17/all_scissuraout_2012_05_04_bk.html
Between enrolling Republican during the 90s and swearing fealty to Newt Gingrich, and then switching back when a seat opened, imitating Cuba Gooding in an effort to raise his pay (while already getting a Police Captain’s pension), sitting in Monserrate’s rooting section at Hiram’s assault trial “Racetrack Empire,” and stupid legislation, the "progressive" romance for Eric Adams has always been unfathomable to me.
And the Post's eagerness to pronounce the Beep race over before it's begun just adds to the puzzle. B’klyn Beep a 1-horse race www.nypost.com
With the apparent coronation of Eric Adams, Malcolm Smith clearly thinks the time has come for the redemption of the entire "Racetrack Empire" gang.
If Ray Kelly doesn't run. I think the GOP should nominate Malcolm for Mayor.
They really owe the guy big. Malcolm (Smith) In The Middle Of Mayor's Race? www.nydailynews.com