Some people have wondered about my indifference to the new schools chancellor. Perhaps because I’m not an educator myself, I don’t see any of the educational controversies being debated as being nearly as good or bad (depending on your point of view) as the financial disaster that is coming:
1) The end of federal stimulus money for education, this year.
2) The state budget crisis.
3) Past pension underfunding in the good years, based on an excessively optimistic (bubble level) rate of return assumption.
4) Fifteen years of retroactive pension enhancements, with a massively costly unfunded one for NYC teachers just two-plus years ago.
Other places are facing the same problems. But with lower tax burdens and lower debt levels than NYC. And our bills acre coming due right on schedule.
I say right on schedule because the pattern of past fiscal crises in this state and city has always been the same. First, steal from the future and use financial engineering to cover up problems in the hopes that things will turn around. Passing budgets that are not balanced to force “emergency” borrowing for example.
Next raise taxes, fees, etc. to the level where doing so becomes counterproductive. As when jobs are driven out.
And then, years after the recession started, often years after it officially ended, the problems can no longer be swept under the run and disaster occurs. That’s where we are now.
I don’t see any way out of a disaster, and I see the Mayor’s layoff announcement as optimistic — not some kind of negotiating point. As if the Mayor believes he is powerful enough to somehow get out of the unavoidable result of past decisions.
What if the City Council balks at cutting the schools less than other services? What if the state legislature cuts aid to the NYC schools more than aid to other districts, as in the early 1990s and early 2000s recession (and as in this recession for every other kind of aid)? What if the economy turns downward as federal stimulus wanes?
As reality sets in, we face the reality of who matters in this state. Political power is divided between producers of public services, unions and contractors who want people to pay more for the same in good times and the same for less in bad times, and wealthy people and businesses who do not require public services and benefits and do not want to pay more for others to have them, given that they already pay so much. Those who rely on public services and benefits matter little, those who are not senior citizens matter less, New York City’s children even less.
The deal that appeals to those with power is to drastically reduce the quality of public services, lay off and cut the future pay and benefits of future public employees, and use PR and misdirection to confuse and sideline the victims. Faux protests against layoffs and service cuts by unions, for example. Blaming some other level of government. Objecting to “spending” with no details on what spending one is talking about. When you’ve seen the numbers, you almost can’t stand to read the newspaper.
Should Ms. Black, whoever she is, or an educator be put in charge of the Department of Education? At this point, I’d say it should either be the head of the UFT, the head of OMB, or both.