The Gateway (Black Bart Edition)

According to the Daily News, Charles Barron, having lost the 8th Congressional Primary 72% to 28% is demanding a recount.

Check out the attached video which follows to find out why I am renaming him "Black Bart": One for Martin, Two for Martin. www.youtube.com Would you like another recount?  

(And, in what might be my greatest accomplish of this election, the version of this post on my Facebook page lead to a conversation with anti-Same Sex Marriage activist Joe Hayon (who doesn’t even own a TV) which caused him to do a Wikipedia search for Waylon Smithers.     

No can say that Charles Barron doesn't bring people together. Hakeem Ran Up Huge Margin In South Brooklyn | City & State www.cityandstateny.com    

40th AD: Jeffries 3,349 votes, Barron's 3,024
Assemblymember/District Leader for the 40th AD: Inez Barron

Councilmember for almost all the 40th AD: Charles Barron   

53rd AD: O'Connor 157, Martinez 171, Velazquez 2,385, Dilan 1,837.

Assemblymember/District Leader for the 53rd AD: Vito Lopez   

51st AD: O' Connor 68, Martinez 85, Velazquez 1,256, Dilan 137

Former District Leader for the 51st AD: George Martinez

Nothing like Occupy Wall Street for Thinking Globally and Slacking Locally   

64th AD: O'Connor 501, Martinez 129, Velazquez 2,318, Dilan 182

Assemblymember for the 64th AD: Shelly Silver

Lessons:

1) Speaking both Mandarin and Cantonese doesn't hurt;

2) Shelly is capable of keeping his word if carefully watched;

3) Vito and Erik's vaunted (mostly by me) connections among NYCHA tenant leaders may be somewhat overrated (but someone is likely to get some coal in their stocking)   

Velazquez actually won an even higher percent than originally thought.

The unofficial results from the Board of Elections have her losing ED 82 of the 52nd Ad to Dan O'Connor by a vote of 1000 to 27.  

Having talked to someone who actually closed that polls, I can now report that O'Connor actually got either one vote there, and his vote total was not 2282 but rather 1283.  

An error this large will have a measurable impact on the final percentages when the official count is actually completed.  

The press reported the election as O’Connor 8.00%, Martinez 2.66%, Velazquez 57.53% and Dilan 32, 97%.   

In actuality (and barring other errors), the totals are O’Connor 4.66%, Martinez 2.74% (another victory for Occupy Wall Street), Velazquez 59.62% and Dilan 32.96%.     

As I've said, a bad day for Vito.

For one thing, Nydia's less than that commanding loss among the Satmar bodes well for Lincoln Restler (Nydia's piece of the 50th AD no longer includes Restler strongholds Northside and Greenpoint—but of course, Restler’s does).  

While loss of most of Fort Greene in reapportionment, and a stronger opponent this time will hurt Restler, the new Aroni strength, combined with new building and demographic shifts will hold him in good stead.

As to Jo Anne Simon, Nydia won the 52nd AD huge (even huger than the initial totals –because there was a 999 vote error in Dan O'Connor's favor).  

Plus, this year’ Lopez candidate, Debra Scotto, is no Hope Reichbach 

Further, many oldtime Italians (a natural base for Vito) do not care for Debra’s father, Buddy.  

And Buddy's support for Dilan (and his footsie with Ron Paul Democrat Dan O’Connor on Dilan's behalf) are about to be hung around Debra's neck like a burning tire–Nydia is loaded for bear and there will be no forbearance.

The one thing Vito has going for him is that these will likely be elections by invitation only.  

No one is challenging anyone else in the 52nd (though a challenge to Marty Dilan seems to be in progress and may help Restler turn out votes in the 50th).How a thumping win for Velazquez complicates Vito Lopez's grand plan | Capital New York www.capitalnewyork.com    

The fat lady hasn't sung quite yet, but one suspects that when all the votes are counted in the Rangel Espaillat race, she will still be singing R&B rather than Boogaloo. Charlie Rangel’s Margin Of Victory Is Getting Smaller politicker.com    

Meanwhile; Espaillat is changing his name to Jesus for the coming resurrection. Battle Brewing Between Espaillat and Linares? | City & State www.cityandstateny.com    

Is Grace Meng too nice to win? http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2012/06/a-day-after-the-primary-its-already-ugly-in-n www.nydailynews.com    

I’ve always estimated “The Dead Dog Vote” to be 24%.

If you are an unknown who puts your name on the ballot in a head to head primary against an incumbent and does nothing, and the incumbent does nothing, you are going to get 24%
 
This year's primaries bought a new phenomena; “The Monster Raving Looney Vote.”  

If you are a certifiable nut case, and put your name on the ballot in a primary, you will almost always be good for around 10% of the vote (this does not apply to drain candidates put up by a County Leader or to fanatic ideologues, just to those a Big Mac and a few fries short of a happy meal.

Take this year's numbers:

5th: Joseph Marthone 8.90%
       Allen Jennings 12.81%
9th: Sylvia Kinard 11.88%
13th Craig Schley 1.47%
16th: Aniello Grimaldi 9.60%

Only the pathetic Schley, who might actually be more needy than nuts, is not within the margin of error.

By contrast, faux Wall Street occupier George Martinez was only good for 2.66% of the vote, proving that voters may be nuts, but they aren't crazy.

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