Orthodox Pundit is right that the Aroni Satmar are exaggerating their strength within the Williamsburg community– but not by as much as OP (and Albert Friedman of the independent Satmar paper Der Tzitung, who made similar observations to me on the phone right before Shabbos and in another conversation earlier this week) say.
Dilan ran pretty well among Latinos on the Williamsburg/East New York corridor. Vito has always been strong and well connected on the Southside, and there are few voters in the 7th's part of the 50th AD from the Yuppie/Artist/Hipster community.
So, given what parts of 50 are in the 7th, I gotta think that Nydia didn't build much of a margin in the 50th outside of the borsht belt, any more than she did in the 53rd (carried by her, but not overwhelmingly) 54th (won by Dilan by a small margin) and the small adjoining, mostly Latino portions of black ADs (which she won unimpressively).
Nydia's campaign’s own analysis had the Hasidic area at 58/41 in Dilan's favor. I'm not sure if this incorporates the 450 vote error in her favor OP found (her Brooklyn Heights numbers correct a similar error in Dan O'Connor's favor).
Her campaign's own stats show she took only 55% in non-Hasidic Williamsburg, though much, if not most of that was in the 53rd AD. However, it seems unlikely that the Latinos in the Hasidic areas voted much differently than the other Williamsburg Latinos. meaning that the Latino vote did not do much to change the margins in the Hasidic areas.
My guess is the Aronis lost the Hasidic vote by about 62/38. Actually a not inconsiderable margin, but nothimg like the Hasidic strength from days of old. Yossi: I Have the Numbers | Orthodox Pundit: News & Political Analysis orthodoxpundit.blogspot.com
The Aroni spin on their own strength is full of flat out lies and exaggerations, most of which Colin catches in the attached link.
However, the idea that the Aronis gave anything like full support to Lincoln Restler last time is pretty close to fictitious (he had some support from a faction of a faction). Further, when the Aronis backed David Greenfield, they were doing do in service to Lopez, not to oppose him.
Bottom line: Aroni support for Nydia was pretty consistent with the levels they produced in the past for other with maybe a slight bump.
Although, 1) that makes them a forced to be reckoned with, and 2) they were on the winning side. Anti-Vito Satmar Faction Takes Victory Lap politicker.com
Albert Friedman, publisher of Der Tzitung asked me an interesting question.
Assuming the elevated Hasidic vote which turned out Tuesday comes out again in September (admittedly a big "if" to assume) is it really possible for Lincoln Restler to overcome his vote deficit in the rest of the AD when there will be nothing else on the ballot in most of the area?
Simcha Felder has never hidden that his views are in opposition to the LGBT community on pretty much the entirety of their legislative agenda.
It is true that Felder has been relatively quiet about it, but that befits his religious modesty about talking about such issues (shared by much of his community), his soft-spoken, non-confrontational manner and personal civility (which has surely helped his community financially) and his innate sense of the decent boundaries of acceptable discourse.
As such, it takes a really special level of scurrilousness to bash Simcha Felder as somehow being an agent for the gay agenda (or, if you will, "the Christine Quinn Agenda").
But David Storobin has always been special.
But when one harps so obsessively about one topic, upon which you don't disagree with your opponent, one has to wonder.
Methinks the lady doth protest too much.
With so little separating the candidates on social issues, one would think Storobin might talk bread and butter issues, but then he might get caught in the trap of being seen as what he is:
A man whose agenda of slashing social services and cutting taxes would be like a schochet's ax aimed straight at the neck of his poor constituents, who would suffer grievously from the implementation of his program (no matter how many members items he got them). Storobin Links Felder to ‘The Christine Quinn Agenda’ and Explains Why Skelos Will Back Him politicker.com
Two More Storobin thoughts:
The real reason Skelos wishes Storobin would go away might have little to do with the Super-Jewish seat.
Skelos might have a deal with Simcha Felder, but it doesn't take an idiot to see why a real Republican might be preferable if you could be assured of getting one.
But it isn't only because Felder looks like a strong favorite (though my word on the street from multiple sources is that Felder should not be overly anticipating the counting of his Omer before the arrival of his November Shavuot), but that Skelos' deal with Agudath Israel is global, rather than local.
There are Aguda strongholds not only in Brooklyn, but also in places like Queens, Yorktown Heights, Monroe, etc.
As Skelos’ conference ages out and seats open or challenges mount, Skelos wants to have these votes in the bank.
Felder is part of the price Skelos is paying for this contract.
My other Storobin thought is that the fact that Storobin is running for Senate is partially the result of a rare break between Skelos and Marty Golden.
Skelos wanted Storobin to run for Assembly in the 45th, but the 45th's Democratic Leader, Mike Geller has always been a big Golden supporter, while Geller's Assemblyman, Steve Cymbrowitz, has never opposed Golden since his election, and is suspected of being one of the Democrats who has worked to keep Golden unopposed most of the time.
Golden hand-picked County Leader, Craig Eaton, can no longer get away with leaving Cymbrowitz unopposed, but Golden's choice for the seat, Russ Gallo, is about the worst choice they could make demographically and temperamentally.
If the Brooklyn GOP wanted to beat Cymbrowitz, Storobin would likely have been made an offer he wouldn't have refused.
52nd AD Results (after adjustment for errors):
Velazquez 3620 (84.81%), Dilan (5.31%), O'Connor (5.57%), Martinez (4.31%).
If we concede Debra Scotto the undivided support of both the candidate her father first supported (O’Connor) and the one he ended up support –and really supported all along (Dilan), she does manage almost a base of almost 11%. (And, while there is a significant portion of the 52nd in other Congressional Districts, the plain fact is that the Scotto base, such that it is, lies entirely within the 7th CD–if Debra Scotto does not run ahead there, she will not make up the deficit elsewhere; she will only expand it exponentially)
But even if we concede that Steve Levin and Lopez's NYCHA connections will get Debra support not available against the union-backed Velazquez, and concede that Scotto has a motivated base in a low-turnout election with nothing else on the ballot (and we ignore the fact that her father is not perceived kindly among much of the perceived Scotto base—many old Italians think Buddy wants to landmark their houses to boost home prices in order to benefit Debra’s real estate business), it still seems impossible to see Debra breaking the one-third mark in this district.
The perceived Scotto Italian/Catholic base still exist to some extent on the voter rolls, but as John Heyer found out, these people don't think of themselves as Democrats and they don't turn out, and even among those of them that do, it is hard to see them having much enthusiasm over someone many of them think of as a flower-child.
Further, while the prior Lopez candidate, Hope Reichbach, had a natural appeal to the armies of 25 year olds renting studios here, it is hard to see them mustering much enthusiasm for a developer who rails against "radical environmentalists."
And, while Deb Scotto certainly looks younger and fresher than Jo Anne Simon to my 54 year old eyes, I'm not sure that younger voters won't perceive them as being part of the same baby boomer generation.
I suspect Vito Lopez knows all this, and is just running this race to drain volunteers and money from Lincoln Restler.
And, the fact that the Scotto crowd managed to do so little for Dilan (Debra still refuses to tell people who she voted for, even though choosing which candidates the Party organization supports is one of a District Leader's actual functions) probably only dampens Lopez's enthusiasm to the same pro forma level of support Dilan got from the Scottos.
Hesh Rabkin: If I was in Rangel's camp, the 2 massive errors in Nydia's count would make me really nervous.
In an amazing act of chutzpah, Anthony "The Gelded Hot Dog" Weiner "touted his own work on behalf of the Affordable Health Care Act."
As recounted in Robert Draper's book "Do Not Ask What Good We Do," that wok consisted largely of undermining the President by going on TV and giving liberals false visions of non-existent sugar plums.
As Draper notes, one day Weiner went on MSNBC and claimed that a health care bill minus a public option would lose 100 votes. “That number had just popped into his head,” reported the author. “He’d uttered it without any reason to believe it was accurate. And yet it soon became a widely quoted number.” http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/anthony-weiner-returns-disgraced-congressman-chimes-supreme-cour www.nydailynews.com
What's Jack Abramoff doing on "Real Time," live on a Friday night? Isn't he frum? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njb015vdt9Y Jack Abramoff, lead guest on "Real Time with Bill Maher" (6.29.12)