Political pundits are a nickel a dozen now; especially with the advent of the internet, the expansion of the overall communication process, and the 24-7 media coverage of politics. But how many pundits are worth their salt? You readers have to make that determination. Those of you who listen to the pundits on radio and/or television ; or read blogs, newspapers, magazines or other periodicals; need to hold them accountable over time. You need to evaluate them based on their prognostications and their successes.
During the last presidential primary cycle, I remember receiving many attacks because I correctly called (way in advance) Barack Obama’s Iowa primary victory. But that was moot. Really. You see, I had already predicted he would be our next president: one and a half years before the presidential election.
I took a long time for me to feel truly vindicated about my consistently high-quality predictions during both Dems and Republican primaries. It took Hilary Clinton’s campaign manager (Howard Wolfson) to validate my deeds. Backstage at the Dems convention of 2008 -on the night Obama accepted the nomination- he basically assured me that as far as he was concerned, I gave the best running analysis of the primaries on the blogs.
Then last summer I told you folks Barack Obama will be re-elected to the presidency (in 2012); and of course (as per usual) there were those who basically said I was talking shit. Fine. Everyone is entitled to his or her own stupid opinion. That’s freedom of speech.
Well here I come again: the upcoming presidential election wouldn’t even be close. Barack Obama is going to win easily. He will win more states than he did last time. He will receive more votes than he did last time; and he will get a higher percentage of the votes cast, when compared.
Now some will ask me a simple question; how do you know this?
Here is my answer: ancient African-American-Caribbean-Chinese secret. LOL.
Just revisit this column come the first Tuesday after the first Monday of next November. I will sum it up simply: the republicans have been on the wrong side of the most pressing issues for a very very very long time now: and it’s time to pay to the piper. Plus, their nominee (whether Romney or Santorum) will be flawed beyond belief. Romney has no soul; and Santorum has no common sense.
When the republican presidential candidates anachronistically went after “women’s issues” (birth control, abortion, family planning, Planned Parenthood, health care, et al), they placed the last nails in their presidential-coffin. Not only will they lose badly to Obama, but they will also lose the House of Representatives; while Dems will retain the senate. Republicans will lose all those purple states (where red and blue mix). They will hold on to some of their die-hard red states (especially in the south) but they will see their grip on various state legislatures loosen. They will also see the biggest losses in the purple state legislatures.
Look, there are at least twenty good reasons why this scenario will unfold: and that’s the real score. Some of these reasons have to do with specific accomplishments by Obama’s administration; for example: Osama Bin Laden’s capture and elimination; plus the mild economic recovery underway. If you click on my photo here, you will get to my archives. If you do so, you will find that I have written more than a dozen columns on Obama and/or his administration since he took office (some not so flattering). I have even listed many of the solid accomplishments. In this column I will advance the three main reasons why Obama will romp; but as I said before I could easily list twenty.
Firstly-as already intoned- the vast majority of women voters women are going to vote for democrats. Last time Obama defeated McClain by about six percentage points amongst women. And remember women-voters comprise the majority voters. This year women are even more motivated (than last time) to show up: that enthusiasm is a sign of bad things to come for repugnicans. The second piece can be summed up in two words: the unions. When republicans went after unions (and workers right to collective bargaining) they made a big big mistake. Unions have long memories and for them payback is a bitch. In states with strong union presence republicans will pay dearly come November.
Finally; non-white voters will make up anywhere from 30 to 33 per cent of the electorate. Blacks are going to vote overwhelmingly for Obama, since there is a perception in the black community that he has been disrespected from day one: by republicans and their tea-partiers. Hispanics are going to vote strongly for Obama because of Republican ambiguity on immigration-reform (amongst other things), and also because Obama placed the first Hispanic on the Supreme Court (amongst other things). Don’t forget that Hispanics went strongly for Obama last time around.
Furthermore: Asians, Native-Americans, and other racial minority groupings seem solidly in the corner of democrats; so after those non-white votes are cast, it is numerically arguable that Obama could win as low as 75 per cent, to as high as 90 per cent of them. Once this happens then Obama will only need as little as one in three (or two in five) non-Hispanic white votes to earn the victory. Do the math folks. Democrats have developed a “rainbow” party; Republicans have not. This thing is a wrap.
Stay tuned-in folks.