ABC News has declared Rudy Giuliani the “Buzzmaker of the Week”
Against all odds and predictions, the former New York City mayor is holding on to his top spot in the Republican field, leading in polls and the money race
ABC is not the only media outlet that is acting as though Rudy (and Hillary) as the sure winners of the Party nominations.
Back in March, I posted my thoughts comparing early polls to Baseball Spring Training results and stated that it much too early to take them seriously.
Well it’s not as early now and the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary are on the horizon and Rudy is leading in all the national polls.
Here is the latest average of the national poll results from Real Clear Politics –
Giuliani Thompson Romney McCain
27.6% 18.7% 12.7% 13.4%
So are the pundits right and is a Rudy-Hillary race a sure thing?
Not so fast! I couldn’t find the equivalent to the attached poll results for this time 4 tears ago on the web but I was able to find a national poll that was completed 2 month closer to Iowa and New Hampshire.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/17/opinion/polls/main589167.shtml
And here’s what was said then –
Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has pulled away from the field in the Democratic Presidential nomination race: his support among Democratic primary voters nationwide has risen in the past month, and held steady after the news of Saddam Hussein's capture. 12/10-13
Howard Dean
23%
Wesley Clark
10%
Joe Lieberman
6%
Richard Gephardt
5%
Al Sharpton
6%
John Kerry
4%
John Edwards
3%
Carol Moseley-Braun
4%
Dennis Kucinich
3%
Don’t Know
24%
John Kerry was trailing Howard Dean by 19%! In the middle of December and he overcame that.
Oh and by the way, Dean, like Rudy led in the money race too.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/extra/features/july-dec03/campaign_10-20.html
Ex-Gov. Howard Dean of Vermont, who started out with a small budget and little name recognition, has used grassroots campaigning and the Internet to raise $25.4 million this year — including a Democratic record-breaking $14.8 million in the last three months. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts has raised more than $20 million, and Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina $14.5 million. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri – the former top Democrat in the House of Representatives – has raised $13.6 million. Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, who was former Vice President Al Gore's running mate in 2000, has raised $11.8 million. Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich has raised $3.4 million.
So, do I still think it’s like Spring Training?
No, I don’t.
It’s closer to August 1st in the baseball season.
And as a Mets fan, I can tell you the team with a big lead in August often does but sometimes doesn’t always win the pennant.