Every four years, various political pundits overhype that year’s contests for governor. Thinking readers won’t think the choice of the chief executive of large states are important enough, these experts must explain to us that who wins an election for governor can be crucial in determining who wins the next Presidential election.
Monday’s example of this perennial is by the usually insightful, Chris Cillizza, of the Washington Post.
Cillizza writes –
The roots of a Republican political renaissance in 2012 lie in the Rust Belt.
….
Ten years ago, Republicans controlled the governorships in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Today they hold none of those seats, after the party suffered an across-the board wipeout due, at least in part, to President George W. Bush's increasing unpopularity as the last decade wore on.
But with a Democrat in the White House and economies in these states flagging badly, Republicans are increasingly optimistic that a sweep, or something close to it, could come to pass.
….
The outcome of these five governor's races could have a big effect on the 2012 presidential election
…
Looking ahead to 2012, the five states have a combined 89 electoral votes — roughly one-third of the 270 a Republican challenger to President Obama will need to win the presidency.
…For Republicans to be competitive against Obama, they must find a foothold, or several footholds, in the Rust Belt and build out from there. The five governor's races in the region this fall represent a critical marker for the GOP heading into the next presidential election.
Here’s what Cillizza did not write.
While Republicans controlled the governorships in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2000, Al Gore won all those states.
And that’s not out of the ordinary.
In the 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama won in 10 states that had Republican governors and John McCain carried 8 states with Democratic governors.
This is a pattern that is be consistently true for the last fifty years
But then again so is the pattern that pundits ignore these facts.