As it turns out, our transit authority isn’t the only one going down the tubes, and for many of the same reasons that the future of the MTA, and those who depend on it, is troubled. A local NYC weatherman, MIT executive and fellow transit fan sends word of the financial condition of the MBTA up in Boston, as described in this Boston Globe article. If Pataki, Bruno and Silver haven’t been in change of Massachusetts, apparently people very much like them have been. Because they’ve done all the same things, with the same results. Rich, undeserved, enhanced, pensions, generally handed out by Democrats, proposed to be offset by lower pay and benefits for future employees. Massive debts run up by Republicans who claimed to cut taxes but in reality merely deferred them. Pandering to riders with cheap fares — leading to massive increases later. And money drained off to the automobile, in this case for the massive over-runs on the Big Dig (not mentioned in the article linked above but very important).
Author: Larry Littlefield
Executive Pay: They Should Go Much Farther
|There are howls of protest over limits on pay and bonuses for companies receiving government bailout subsidies, with one version limiting guaranteed pay to $500,000 per year. The protest is that these top executives ought to receive whatever their talents command in the free market for labor, and if their pay were restricted at one company, they would simply move on to another, making the lower-paying company worse off. There is a free market for labor in the United States, but those who have been gaining a larger and larger share of national income and wealth over the past 25 years are precisely those who have used their power over institutions to exempt themselves from it.
In the case of the executives, what you have is a loosely operated cabal that works through a small number of pay consultants, hired by boards of directors precisely because they recommend higher pay. These boards of directors theoretically represent shareholders, but the elections for them are as rigged and undemocratic as those for the New York State Legislature. They are stuffed with cronies, executives sitting on each other’s boards and recommending increases in each other’s pay, knowing that the consultants will use the pay they approve as justification for more for themselves down the line. Not too many years ago it was argued that soaring executive pay, justified or not, was too small a share of overall company costs to materially affect shareholders, workers, and customers. Now, across a range of industries, that is no longer the case. As corrupt as government often is, there is a case for more intervention rather than less. Not just for corporations receiving bailouts. In fact, not just for corporations. What about unions and non-profit organizations?
Bankruptcy: Governor Paterson Gives Me Hope
|Finally some good news out of Albany. The Binghamton Press-Connect reports that according to Governor Paterson, without a change to the “orgy of self-interest” in state government, which will not happen, New York will be bankrupt in 18 months. “I'd say without a reversal of the traditional process of delaying trouble into the future, I'd say about 18 months away,” the Governor said at a meeting. New York might follow California “into receivership or some sort of development corporation.” He seemed to imply this would be a bad thing. But in bankruptcy, all the existing deals, favors, exemptions, contracts, and privileges would be swept away, and everyone would start over at zero. As painful as that would be, the more likely scenario is even worse — most of those privileges remain in place, and others — and younger generations — will be left with a level of taxes and public services and benefits so awful that no bankruptcy court or other body of reasonable people would think to impose it.
Taxes and Generational Equity in 2008: The Latest Annual Analysis of the Issue No One (Else) Seems to Want to Talk About
|It’s tax time again, and time to take stock of how the events of the past year have affected two fictional couples, the Young Hopefuls, now both age 29 with a three-year-old child, and the Senior Voters, now both age 69. You may recall from last year’s post on this subject that in 2007 each couple had an income of $100,000. The Young Hopefuls, with no savings or health insurance or pension, and living in a rented one-bedroom apartment, paid $22,214, or 22.2% of their income, in federal taxes that year based on a TurboTax analysis, while the Senior Voters, who owned their home, had a pension, and benefited from Medicare, paid $11,791 on the very same level of income, or 11.8% of it. The Young Hopefuls paid $10,814 in state and local income taxes and (indirectly as part of their rent) property taxes, or 10.8% of their income. The Senior Voters paid just $2,378, or 2.4% of their identical income, in state and local income and property taxes, one quarter of what the younger couple paid. That is $33,028 in taxes for the Young Hopefuls and $14,169 for the Senior Voters on the very same cash income, even though the senior citizen couple in this example had far more wealth and non-cash benefits. After paying for taxes and housing the Senior Voters had $83,405 left to spend, the Young Hopefuls $46,980. So what happened to these couples in 2008?
For Those of You Keeping Score At Home
|You may have heard that today the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics announced, based on the monthly survey of business establishments, that U.S. payroll employment fell by just under 600,000 from December to January. That is the worst month since 1974, I read. What you may not have heard, however, is that based on the monthly survey of households, BLS also reported the number of employed residents of the United States fell by 1.24 million, or more than twice as much. Double. More than 1.2 million in one month. Those who consistently read my posts, including this recent one, know how the difference may be explained: the household survey includes the self-employed, people who own their own businesses, freelancers, and independent contractors.
The Proposed City Budget: Not Real Until November
|It's hard to get motivated to write about the city budget, given that it's too late to do anything about most of the things that have bothered me for so long. The vested interests are vested, powerful and insatiable, and its time to give up on public services for anyone else in the future, or even the basic needs of the less well off, even though this will still be a relatively rich country when it is through getting poorer. It's also hard to say something worth saying, given that what is out there as a proposal may bear little resemblance to what actually occurs from July 2009 to June 2010, and is misleading about even what is expected at this point. So rather than spend time to write a long analysis few people will read or care about anyway, I'm going to make just one point. As predicted and oh-so-predictable, the Mayor's proposal under-funds the massively costly pension benefits the powerful have promised to themselves, deferring while increasing their cost until after his re-election. Just as is happening elsewhere in the country. Are there any philosophers or theologians out there who can assure me that people actually have free will?
Governor’s Island Nightmare
|Back when I was at City Planning, when the first of several failed plans for Governor’s Island was being framed, there is one nightmare I hoped would be avoided. That at the urging of groups such as the Municipal Arts Society, the island would be parkland alone, and would not have revenues to support its maintenance. And therefore it would drain the budget of the NYC Parks Department, the most under-funded service (relative to average spending) in the New York City. Wealthier New Yorkers would continue to have decent park and recreation facilities, because they would pay for them themselves, in fees and “donations.” But poor and working class New Yorkers, who (unlike suburbanites with their private yards) rely on public parks for leisure and exercise, would lose out. And meanwhile, Governor’s Island would become the preserve of those affluent enough to afford an unsubsidized ferry trip, so the affluent would benefit from those Parks Department tax dollars, now diverted to Governor’s Island, but the less well off would not. My suggestion was to move the U.N. and embassies there and turn it into an “international peace island;’ the Giuliani Administration proposed a casino; a later iteration included CUNY; and still later an amusement park. But I knew as soon as Governor’s Island became the property of the city and state rather than the federal government, we were doomed. And now, according to the New York Observer, the nightmare is coming true.
Medicaid by State in 2006
|In mid-June 2008 a total of 44 states had reported their 2006 Medicaid data in a form acceptable as final by the federal Department of Health and Human Services. That’s where the number still stands today seven months later, and rather than wait any longer, I’ve decided to summarize and describe what we have. Unfortunately, because I like to compare New York State with surrounding states as well as the national average, Massachusetts is among the non-reporters. The data, attached in two spreadsheets, includes each state’s percent share of the 44 states’ total Medicaid beneficiaries and expenditures, and its average cost of service per beneficiary, by type of service (nursing home, hospital, etc.) and age group. Additional data from other sources are included to put those numbers in context — each state’s share of the 44 states’ population, population in poverty, population age 65 or over and in poverty (recall that Medicaid was originally a program for the poor), personal income and per capita income (which correlates with the overall cost of living and what each state can afford). The summary tables, in the worksheets titled “output,” are primed to print, and compare the 44-state total with New York State and the sum of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Connecticut. The finding is that longstanding patterns remained in place in 2006, but with some new twists. A brief discussion follows.
Dodging A Bullet in 2012; Partying While Broke in 2009
|I’m about to say something almost nice about Sheldon Silver, so I’m doing it early in the weekend so I’ll have the whole two days to recover. The next few years are certain to be years of severe fiscal pain for New York City and State, with higher taxes and collapsing services, and quite likely to be years of fiscal disaster akin to the 1970s. This is due not only to the recession, but also to the future-wrecking consequences of the deals, favors and non-decisions of the past two decades, consequences that are set to explode. Moreover, it may become increasingly difficult to defer (while increasing) those disastrous consequences through borrowing, which is what New York has done repeatedly in the recent past. Mr. Silver is among those who share most of the blame for this. But what would have happened if New York City and State, in addition, were staring down a multi-billion-dollar bill for the 2012 Olympics right now? Looks like Mr. Silver’s veto allowed New York to dodge an artillery shell. In any event, way back when a New York Olympics was first proposed by former Mayor Giuliani, I wrote that while other cities (such as Chicago) might need an established international event to bring the world to their door, New York City, being itself, could manage with something vastly lower (down to near zero) in cost and more indigenous. As they did with the New York City Marathon, the city’s people are organizations are capable of creating our own event. For those interested, my suggestion follows.
They’re Still Hiring and Bonusing
|From the New York State employment press release yesterday: “Since December 2007, the number of nonfarm jobs (private plus public sectors) in New York State decreased by 121,400, or 1.4 percent, and the number of private sector jobs decreased by 122,200, or 1.7 percent.” And, “New York City (five boroughs): Since December 2007, the number of nonfarm jobs has decreased by 53,600, or 1.4 percent, and the number of private sector jobs has decreased by 49,100, or 1.5 percent.” Let’s do the math. Subtracting NYC from the rest of the state, in the rest of the state total nonf-farm jobs fell 67,800 and private sector jobs fell 73,100. Which means that in the rest of the state the number of public sector jobs rose by 5,300, while in New York City the number of public sector jobs fell by 4,500, re-establishing the near two-decade-old pattern. No wonder New York City can afford to have its municipal assistance cut, while the rest of the state — even suburban jurisdictions that are far wealthier on average, cannot.
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