Spitzer: They Can’t Handle the Truth

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In my prior post here, I called for the Governor make the rest of the state face the truth about state education funding over the past 30 years, for him to say the unsayables. That New York City’s share of total education funding, including back door “tax relief” aid, has not only been lower than its number of public school children, and very low considering their relative needs, but also lower than city residents’ share of state income and sales taxes – the state has redistributed education funding AWAY from the city’s poor children. That no matter what happens how, the past cannot be undone, those passing through the city’s schools in the past can never recover, and the effect of past underfunding will linger on for many years. That as long as the city’s share of state education funding is less than its residents’ share of its residents’ state income and sales taxes, the rest of the state is doing absolutely nothing to help the city’s children – at best. And, that the money taken away from the city has been used to pay for extravagantly high spending in the rest of the state. But Spitzer hasn’t said those things, and the budget he has presented, net, hits the city hard. And the State Senate is predictably claiming the rest of the state is being cheated, and demanding that the city be hurt even more.

Local Government Employment in NYC in 2006: Before Day One, Little Changed

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In my previous post here, I described, and provided in a spreadsheet, my tabulation of 2006 local government and payroll data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which was released on March 5th, and related private-sector employment data. This data show that relative to its population New York City continues to have far more people working in hospitals, both public and private, than the national average, while the rest of New York State has far more people than average working in public schools. One thing that has changed from past years, however, is that New York City’s public schools are not as under-staffed, and its instructional employees as underpaid, as they once were, though the pay level remains below the national average if overall wage levels Downstate are considered.

New Public Employment and Payroll Data Shows Spitzer’s Budget the Best of the Three

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The Governments Division of the U.S. Census Bureau has released March 2006 state and local government public employment and payroll data for the United States and the states. I have downloaded this information, have done some calculations to make the data comparable, and have included relevant private-sector data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and New York State and New Jersey Departments of Labor. The results are in the attached spreadsheet, on the two pages that print, and are directly relevant to the budget negotiations ongoing in Albany. Based on what I see there, if I had to choose I've vote for the Governor's budget rather than that passed by the Assembly or State Senate.

Medicaid Expenditures: Up or Down?

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New York’s powerful and advantaged interests like to compare this year’s spending with last year’s spending. This locks in the winners and losers, by making the privileges of the past the baseline for the future. I like to compare revenues, expenditures, employment and pay between places as well, to identify who the advantaged interests are. I also try to adjust for factors that might explain, and justify, any differences. But when the health care industry told the New York Times that Medicaid spending per beneficiary has been going down since 2000, and cited the Center of Medicare and Medicaid as a source, I decided to check my spreadsheets. I get total New York Medicaid expenditures per beneficiary at $7,646 in 2000 and $7,910 in 2004, a 3.5% gain. For Hospital services, spending per beneficiary rose from $7,861 to $8,364, a 6.4% increase. And for Nursing Home services for the aged, spending rose from $35,187 to $43,957, a 22.1% rise. In the latter two cases, I do not believe the funds that are part of the 2002 Health Care Reform Act are included, since these do not concern the federal government. That said, these are smaller gains than these industries are used to ordering people to provide. But they still aren’t losses. Perhaps the health care industry provided data based on expenditures divided by the number enrolled in Medicaid, whether or not they needed any health care. The Times should not have swallowed what they were told whole.

Not Your Father’s Economic Decline

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The March revision of Current Employment Survey data from the New York State Department of Labor is out, and official 2006 annual average data is out with it, so I have decided to see how different parts of New York State have fared (see spreadsheet). In the decade from 1996 to 2006, New York City gained 286,800 private sector jobs (10.2%), leaving it about 142,000 below the city’s employment peak in 1969, a pre-fiscal crisis year when the city’s poverty rate was actually below the national average. It is far above the rest of the nation, and the rest of the state, today. The rest of the state, which was close to all time employment highs in the mid-to-late 1990s, gained 300,400 jobs (8.1%) during the period. But those gains were not shared evenly. The Downstate Suburbs and Hudson Valley, feeding off Manhattan’s growth but without the local taxes associated with New York City’s poor, gained 262,000 private jobs (13.8%), the fastest growth anywhere in the state, while metro areas elsewhere upstate gained only 20,400 private jobs (1.5%). Removing job gains the Health Care and Social Assistance sectors, many of those metro areas lost private jobs. Even so, virtually every part of the state had a local government boom — except New York City. Back in your father’s economic decline, New York City has forced to swallow a substantial decline in public services and soaring taxes due to the need for “personal responsibility” when its private economy declined. Many of those public services are still more limited, and taxes higher, than in 1969. But this is not your father’s economic decline, and this time “society is to blame.”

Making Future Presidents Pay Attention to New York

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Well it looks like Mr. Skurnick and others will get their wish, and the New York primary will be moved up to February 5th along with a bunch of other states. This will induce future Presidents to pay attention to New York and ignore other states, until they retaliate by moving their primaries to January 20th, forcing New York to move its primary to January 3rd, and so on and so forth until the first primary for the next election takes place two days after the inauguration. I, too, was dismayed by the realization that with New York’s electoral votes locked up by the Democrats, and incumbents virtually unchallenged in legislative and congressional offices, there was basically no election in New York in 2004. This lack of democracy is not what they taught you in school. So I have another suggestion to make future Presidents to pay attention to New York – cut a deal with Texas to have the each state allocate its electoral votes in proportion to the percentage of the vote — if the other will as well.

Should New York’s Nurses Be Crying?

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With 1199 S.E.I.U. United Healthcare Workers East and the Greater New York Hospital Association running commercials attacking Governor Spitzer’s relatively small increase in Medicaid spending, and these commercials featuring nurses, I became curious how New York City’s nurses, and other health care workers, were faring relative to their colleagues elsewhere in the country. Curious enough to download and compile Occupational Employment Data from the New York State Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. After their nearly 20 years of ruthless pursuit of unenlightened self-interest with total indifference to other priorities and needs through naked political power, nothing I could find here would make me feel better about these interest groups. If the employment level, adjusted for population and overall employment, and average annual pay, compared with the average overall, for workers in health care occupations were above average, I would be upset that the rest of us were funding these excesses through higher Medicaid spending. If they were below average, on the other hand, I would be upset that we were paying so much more for Medicaid and yet our health care workers were understaffed and underpaid. And if they were about average, I would be outraged that Medicaid, a program for the poor, was being overcharged so private health insurance for the wealthy could carry less of the load. So they are guilty. But the data can help show what they are guilty of. It is attached, and described below.

One Way on Park Slope’s 6th and 7th Avenues: Not What I Would Choose

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DOT is proposing turning 6th and 7th Avenues in Park Slope into one way streets, like 8th Avenue and Prospect Park West, and narrowing 4th Avenue from three moving lanes in each direction to two. A look at the map shows the potential borough-wide rationale. Vehicles from a huge swath of southern Brooklyn funnel into Ocean Parkway and the Prospect Expressway, and currently have two main options heading to and from the Downtown Brooklyn area and the free East River bridge: Prospect Park, which some advocates want closed to vehicles, and 4th Avenue, designated for most of Park Slope’s new housing. The Prospect, however, also has a direct exit from/entrance to the south at 8th and 7th Avenues. The former is a one way street with timed lights and, therefore, higher traffic capacity. But 7th Avenue is not, and since one-way Prospect Park West does not have easy access to the Prospect/Ocean Parkway, it is a poor substitute for 7th Avenue. Other rationales have been discussed, but I suspect diverting some traffic and making 4th Avenue seem more like a pedestrian-friendly street and less like an industrial arterial is one of them. It may also be that the extensive studies of closing Prospect Park to traffic in recent years led DOT to try to come up with an alternative. I’ll warn the reader that I am not a traffic engineer, and know less about this subject than the topics I usually post on, but what it’s worth my opinions are below.

The Fire Contract: Better than the Last One

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All I know about it is what I read in the newspaper, but it appears the new firefighter contract is better than the prior one. Some of the more recent damage to new hires is undone, though it some of it will come out their pockets in other ways. They'll still be behind those with seniority by the wage increases in the last two contracts, however. Moreover, there will be bonuses for pay in tougher jobs, something I agree with. The problem with merit pay is that not all managers will handle discretionary increases correctly in a public sector context, especially in titles where workers must work independently and the quality of their work is hard to judge. But some jobs have inherent merit, and if someone is capable of doing them (or if they are dangerous), compensation should be adjusted accordingly.

Social Security: What Should They Do

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Thus far, I have laid out a moralistic tale on Social Security, with prior generations collecting extra payroll taxes from the young, promising benefits, and spending the money or cutting their income taxes, and borrowing on top of it. That, however, is only one of the problems with the program as it now exists, and on a going forward basis it isn’t even the most important problem. The main problem is that people are living longer. When social insurance for old age was first enacted, and the retirement age was set to age 65, that was also the average life expectancy. That’s why Social Security is actually called Old Age Survivor and Disability Insurance (OASDI) — one is taking out insurance against living to an old age. The average life expectancy for women (relevant because Social Security pays survivors even if they did not work), however, was already 73.1 years in 1960, and was 80.4 in 2004. Moreover, people used to work longer than they do today. In 1940, 66.9% of men age 65 and over were in the labor force, working or looking for work, according to the Historical Statistics of the United States. In 1890 that figure was 68.3%, but in 1985, it was just 15.5% for single men and 16.8% for married men. If people are going to live longer, they are either going to have to work longer as well, or they are going to place an unreasonable burden on the young.