Today is my one-year anniversary of posting on Room Eight. Although I was asked to join at the outset, it took me a while to agree to take the commitment on, and to secure my family’s permission for the diverting the time it takes to post here. My view was and is that most people would find my comments on the news of the day of limited interest. Instead, for the most part I have tried to provide unique information based on independent research, in the hope that eventually someone would follow my lead. And although I am clearly writing for a limited audience, that is after all the point of the internet – it allows limited audiences to be served. So although writing, in effect a two- to three-page research report in the evening may not be the best hobby for someone who writes a five- to eight-page research report in the office every day, I hope to continue contributing for a least two or three more years. Or at least until Room Eight readers find they’ve heard it all before, and pretty much know what I’m going to say before I say it.
I am aware that I am in a unique position to do this. My education and twenty years experience in government provide me with extensive background information. On the other hand, since I no longer work for the government, nor for an organization that does business with the government, nor for a think tank financed by those with a particular bias or set of interests with regard to public policy, I can say whatever I think is right. Which is a good thing, because I have always had an inability to think inside the box.
If I worked for the Manhattan Institute or the Fiscal Policy Institute, in contrast, only one-third of the comments and data I have posted in the past year would have ever appeared. Each organization would probably be happy with about one-third of what I have to say; another third perhaps is unsayable from either of their perspectives. Even newspapers have things they cannot or will not discuss, or else risk losing readers or advertisers.
Who was hiring lots of policy analysts the last time I was looking for a job? Local 1199 and the Greater New York Hospital Association. Their job, presumably, is to sift through mounds of data to find the 10 percent of the facts consistent with their goals, and turn them over their ministry of propaganda. Most trade organizations presumably hire people for similar reasons. To the National Association of Realtors, it was a great time to buy a house when objectively it was a great time to sell one. You don’t necessarily need to shill and say things that are not true to earn a paycheck. But there are some things that are true that you cannot say.
Moreover, since I also am not a member of either of the political tribes, I have no need to say or refrain from saying anything to keep in good standing with my social circle. In any event, few people I know personally pay any attention to what I write here. So when an elected official of either party does something I agree with, I can say so, and when they do something I disagree with, I can also say so. Although admittedly I am more likely to write about the former case than the latter. Frustration is a great motivation to work for free.
So what do I hope to achieve? Getting plagiarized is always nice, because it means additional people are accepting the facts I see as facts, and my opinions as to what the facts mean, as valid. I want the unsaid to be said, preferably not just by me. And after a few years of my tabulating, based on the methodologies I think are the right ones, and posting data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s finance division and elsewhere, I’m hoping some relatively autonomous organization such as the Office of the State Comptroller will be shamed into having a staff member do it instead. Whatever I can do in my spare time, surely someone else could manage to do more as a full time job.
And when elected officials make non-decisions, I want them to face some accountability for what they didn’t do (or, if a past decision or deal has negative or unjust consequences but benefits some interest, didn’t undo). All but the worst decisions our governments make are better than the non-decisions that happen every day, but non-decisions don’t show up in the news, which is why elected officials like to make them. I prefer decisions, backed by more or less sincere opinions as to what is fair and reasonable.
And what is my opinion of the majority of Room Eight’s readers, and that of other political blogs? They are excited by elections, when jobs (not just of the elected officials but of associated staffers, members and affiliated organizations) and reputations are at stake and thus every assertion, criticism or accusation must be responded to. So expect things to get rather loud in 2008 and 2009, hopefully bringing my posts to a smaller share of the total.
Federal policy isn’t my main concern, and I’m not sure anyone will want to hear my point of view on Iraq or immigration. When the 2008 Statistical Abstract of the United States comes up, however, I do plan a more detailed version of the long-term analysis of federal revenues and expenditures I did http://www.r8ny.com/blog/larry_littlefield/social_security_where_did_all_the_money_go.html , given by category as a share of GDP. And, I’ll add a column for the federal budget as it would be if I were making the decisions. I recommend against voting for any major party Presidential candidate who doesn’t provide the same.