Comptroller DiNapoli is reporting that the end of the federal stimulus program in FY 2011-2012 will mean the NYC schools lose 5.7% of their budget, as reported by Capitol Confidential. A large share of the so-called school budget, however, goes to debt service, pensions and retiree health care, not schools. And that share is set to soar in FY 2011 — 2012, as more of the cost of the 25/55 pension deal and the investment losses of recent years are admitted to. Therefore, expect funding for actual schools to fall by at least 10 percent and possibly much more than year, even if city and state funding does not fall further. That will be after whatever cuts happen in FY 2010-2011, the worst of which will probably not occur until after the November 2010 election. And I wouldn't expect any recovery in city and state funding until FY 2013-14.
Bottom line, a return to the 1970s for the city's school is scheduled for September 2011, 15 months after the MTA goes back in time. This time many other schools will join them, despite soaring taxes, unless those debt, pension and retiree health care costs somehow go away.