The Intermediate Term Political Outlook

According to the Historical Statistics of the United States, the population of the 13 colonies in 1780 was about 2.8 million, compared with around 19 million in New York State today. Which means that David Paterson, Rick Lazio and Andrew Cuomo, given the population they are drawn from, could be compared directly with George Washington, John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, the first three Presidents of the United States.

What will politics be like a decade from now? After a decade in which taxes on those without special exemptions rise each year, but public services are cut, as more and more money is diverted to the debts and retiree benefits older generations have promised themselves? A decade during which younger generations see their standard of living fall below what their parents’ received, and they struggle to pay those higher taxes, even as top executives continue to receive massive pay and bonuses and public employees continue to retire in their 40s or 50s to a life of leisure? A decade in which those born after 1956 approach old age with no pensions and little savings, and are told that public safety net benefits for seniors will no longer be there for them? And who do we have as possible leaders as we head into this abyss? Paterson, Lazio and Cuomo, three creatures of the system supported by those who benefit from it. As Generation Greed, from the public employee unions to the lobbyists to the advertisers to Fox News, seeks to continue to avoid the uncomfortable truths and deflect the outrage through deception, as millions of people refuse to acknowledge the reality of a society that, collectively, has felt the right to take out more than has been put in, it is quite possible that U.S. politics five or ten years from now will end up something like this.

Just consider what we are witnessing. The huge bonuses being paid out in finance even though this years financial profits are entirely the result of massive government subsidies, from having the federal government take on massive contingent liabilities in the mortgage market to having the Federal Reserve artificially depress the interest savers receive. The public employee unions, even as taxes have been raised and services are being cut, even as the pay and benefits of future public workers has been cut, are pushing for even earlier retirements for existing members with seniority. Evidently age 55 isn’t good enough for the UFT. They want an “incentive” so more can retire at age 50 or 45, so more can get out before the collapse. After all, they’ve gotten similar unannounced deals from the politicians in other elections years. For all we know, it has already happened.

Think of what has happened in the past five years, just in elections for Governor. When Tom Suozzi, who had dared to challenge the conspiracy of ever rising self dealing and unearned privilege in the State of New York, ran for Governor, the powers that be – the unions, the rich, the politicians – all rallied around Eliot Spitzer, who they felt would be one of them. They threatened Suozzi with the end of his career if he did not leave the race for Governor.

Then, when Spitzer was elected, he briefly turned on the powers that be and said some (but by no means all) things that had been unsayable. Only to roll over in his first budget, and then sign a law allowing NYC existing teachers to retire at 55 instead of 62. Then he resigned in a prostitution scandal.

The state legislature, unions, lobbyists etc. rejoiced when Governor Paterson took over, but pretty soon he started recanting his future-selling special dealing career. And so he too was rolled over, and started going after the losers – future public employees, future residents, most residents of New York City – and protecting most of the winners. But because he too told some truths, the insiders want a another insider to succeed him: Andrew Cuomo.

What does Andrew Cuomo stand for? Who, in his view, didn’t put enough in or took too much out? He won’t say, but we can assume. Those who have made the rules are vested; the rest will have to be sacrificed due to “circumstances beyond our control.”

Lazio? What does he stand for? He comes from a political tradition that has seen local government employment outside New York City soar by more than 100,000 in 20 years with no objection, while all the sacrifices have been focused on a city where local government employment has been going down. Another phony conservative. A Pataki & W. Bush future-selling fraud.

I’ll say something the likes of which I’ve never said before. I would be a better choice for Governor than any of these men, simply by virtue of knowing what the truth is, being willing to say what it is, and not having emerged from the swamp these creatures have. And as I say so, I don’t beat my chest. I shake my head.

Our situation is not unique in the U.S., although we face if from a starting point of having the highest state and local tax burden. And the U.S. situation is not unique in the world. If the groups that have grabbed a larger and large share of what is now a shrinking pie, as a result of their power and sense of entitlement, not their contribution, were confronted, defeated and forced to accept some kind of fairness, and the rest could then accept a decade of sacrifice to offset 30 years of irresponsibility, the situation could be turned around. But that’s now the way to bet. Not when our future is in the hands of Silver, Skelos, Sampson, Smith and Paterson, Cuomo or Lazio.

Elections, government, every institution is losing legitimacy. No one can run, even get on the ballot, without one or more of the existing winners behind them, and no one believes votes make a difference. Where is the proof? So what will the consequences be?