Yesterday I suggested that we pay little or no attention to the spin from all sides regarding who will win too close to call election results. While writing about it, I was reminded about two other examples of worthless speculation that people in New York politics engage in – one happened last week and the other will happen shortly.
Last Tuesday, we heard, as we do on every Election Day, that turnout was heavy or light or average or good or bad for Democrats or Republicans. As usual this speculation was based on data about as useful as tarot cards, either claims from one side or the other that things are going great for them or reports from a voter who thinks how long they wait on line and the number of people milling around their polling place is reflective of what is happening in the City, State or Country.
Coming soon. after the Census Bureau announces how many congressional seats New York will lose in 2012, we will then hear from “sources” which incumbents’ careers will be ended because of this. Based on my observation of this craptrat since 1972, I say, with cinfidence, almost every prediction will be wrong. I remember hearing that the following will happen because of the redrawing on congressional lines – Chuck Schumer was going to be forced to run against another Democratic Congressman both in 1982 and 1992, the late congressmen Ted Weiss & Bill Green were on a collision course, Elliot Engel’s district was going to be either obliterated or made into a district that had to elect an African-American and that Carolyn Maloney & Jerry Nadler would run against each other. I’m sure I’m missing a few more examples like this that perhaps Gatemouth remembers but suffice to say,none of these thing happened and I suggest all of us be skeptical about the expert but worthless speculation we will soon read or hear about Peter King, Catolyn McCarthy, etc.