What follows are items about the Special Election in the 54th AD I had added to my last column after it was initially posted (they've since been deleted), plus an item I posted a few days ago. After some thought, I realized that the Special Election in the 54th justified a piece of it’s own, and while I lack the knowledge to write a good one, everyone else writing about it is even more clueless, so, as a public service, I’ve compiled my thoughts so far for the benefit of those interested in reality based commentary.
Politicker NY says Darryl Towns’ seat is likely to stay in his family's hands, but the Democratic nomination is determined by the AD's Democratic County Committee, and the petition requirement for non-ballot status parties is higher than the normal requirement for a Democratic primary. The District Leaderships are split between the Towns family and the Lopez-allied Dilan family. In addition, there are surely more Latino votes here than blacks.
My bet is that the far more anally-fixated Lopez allies control the AD's County committee. And my guess is that the Towns family will take a dive.
And, as I said to Linc Restler about a year ago, there is no successful anti-Lopez scenario that succeeds without the help of Ed Towns. Towns Seat Looks Likely to Stay in Towns Family | The New York Observer www.observer.com
The vacancies created by the good fortune of Darryl Towns (if being put in charge of Housing in NYS can be called good fortune) has created an avalanche of reporting seemingly unconnected to the fact-based community.
No one "runs" for a vacant leadership in the traditional sense of "running." The vacancy is filled by a vote of the County’s Democratic Party Executive Committee.
In psyching such a vote out one must remember:
1) That is the Committee that elected Vito Lopez its leader.
2) That Committee contains eleven votes personally handpicked by Vito.
3) There is a tradition of deference in such situations to the wishes of the vacant district's remaining leader; in this case, that is Jannitza Luna, an ally of Vito Lopez.
I am not saying that ET does not get to be the new Leader. There are several prudential reasons why Vito may chose to allow this to happen. But the odds of it happening any way other than by Vito's sufferance are extremely slim.And if it doesn't happen now, don't count on it in September 2012. ET is not looking to run in two contested primaries at once. Plus, who knows where the district lines will be by then. Sources: Congressman Ed Towns Looking to Run for District Leader | The New York Observer www.observer.com
Speaking of Towns vacancy articles clean of the taint of any reporting, let us note that the following:
1) The first question is, "who controls the county committee for the AD?" Answer that and you determine who gets the party nomination. Then, figure out if anyone else has both the initiative and the troops to qualify an independent line petition (5% of the district's total number of votes cast for Governor in 2010) in mid-winter, or sufficient drag with another Party to get their line.
2) The Council District of the justifiably "underrated" Ms. Mealy, who got all of 36% when she last sought renomination, has two EDs within the 54th AD (the little green triangle at the top of the map in the link), and if my recall of the geography is correct, they are not very populated. Her support will probably be worth almost nothing in this race.
3) As to Rock's potential candidates, Manny Burgos not only lives in the 40th AD; he's registered to vote there. As such, he ineligible to run in this election (the September 2012 primary is an entirely different matter). As to Farouk Samaroo, having worked for jailbird Brian McLaughlin will probably not prove the asset Rock seems to assume it will be; on the other hand, even if Floyd Flake does end up in jail, his support would be of great value.
UPDATE: Farouk just asked me to friend him on Facebook (I kid you not).
Here's what it says on his page:
"Farouk Samaroo Respond to Friend Request
In other words, Rock named two possible candidates besides Eric Dilan (who himself may not be running), and neither of them live in the District.
Maybe Rock should switch to writing fiction (wouldn't be much of a switch).THIS NEW JOB FOR ASSEMBLYMAN DARRYL TOWNS, MAY CREATE SOME EXCITEMENT IN A DULL ELECTION YEAR. | Roo www.r8ny.com