Far Rock-in the Vote

The narrative from those who can’t face the truth and those whose agendas find it convenient is about how pathetically weak David Weprin was as a candidate.

There’s more than a little truth to that, but let’s not let the narrative exceed the facts like some reporters have.

Take the usually reliable Azi Paybarah, whose contributions to this genre include an  article entitled  Turning out  Rockaway Democrats for an Assembly Candidate, but not necessarily for Weprin,” which implies Weprin did far worse in that area than the successful Democratic Assembly candidate Phil Goldfeder.

AZI: More than one operative in Queens today told me that they'd heard from voters who said they'd gone to the polls to vote for a Democratic Assembly candidate, but then pulled the lever (or is it "filled the oval" now?) for Turner in the congressional race.

And indeed, Phil Goldfeder got 54.39% in the district to Weprin’s 40.89%.

But numbers can be deceiving.

A far more accurate reading of the impact those races would have on each other was done by me on June 24, before Weprin was even nominated:

“add in a special election with nothing on the ballot but judicial races (except for two Assembly specials–one a snoozer; the other, in the Rockaways and vicinity, with a strong Republican bringing out Irish Breezy Point and Broad Channel Republicans, while the Dems are stuck with a guy whose base is in a different Congressional District).”

I made a similar point on September 8:

“My main agenda here is holding the 9th CD seat in Congress, and I’m not sure how much these guys help.  

Goldfeder’s base in Far Rockaway is not in the 9th, and his Republican opponent, Jane Deacy, is strong in all the communities where Bob Turner needs a big vote.”

Now let’s look at the vote in the 23rd AD in a more detailed manner.

In the portions of the 23rd AD that actually overlap the 9th CD, Bob Turner, who lives here, beat Weprin 5993 to 4158.

In the same area, Turner’s running mate, Jane Deacy, beat Goldfeder by a strikingly similar 5624 to 4330.

In others words, the number of Turner/Goldfeder voter was barely more than a couple of hundred.

Sorry, Azi.  

In the areas of the 23rd AD outside the 9th CD at the district’s northern, mostly white Christian end, Deacy also beat Goldfeder by a vote of 613 to 514.

However, in Far Rockaway, Goldfeder beat Deacy by a small margin.

3178 to 491.     

It is true, however, that in the 27th AD Democratic Assembly candidate Michael Simanowitz did far better worse than Weprin  in the district’s  9th CD portion.

I also predicted that:

Simanowitz is also Orthodox.

The question is, do these guys pull out votes who then check the box for Turner?

But the Orthodox problem was not the one Wednesday-morning supporters of supposed silver bullet candidates like Melinda Katz are talking about—no one really believes single mother Katz would have improved Weprin’s showing among the Orthodox.  

And it surely wasn’t the problem Azi was talking about in a column called “Turning out  Rockaway Democrats for an Assembly Candidate, but not necessarily for Weprin,