The Latest

The Plot Against America

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GATEMOUTH (7/24/08): In contrast to Dubya's Aggressive Isolationism, [Beinart] argues that “American greatness cannot simply be asserted; it must be proved….That American leadership is not American Empire.” As Arthur Schlesinger, Jr. said…, “The replacement of containment by the Bush Doctrine of preventive war…has screwed everything up with illegitimacy, tactical blunders, and utopian fantasy.”

But this week, we saw that the former allies who now disdain us may be saying “No, No No” to Uncle Sam, but still yearn for our powerful embrace. In the post-September 11 period, we briefly saw Western Europeans displaying American flags as an act of solidarity, rather than one of provocation; something rarely encountered since November of 1963. In the aftermath of the Iraq invasion, I never thought I’d see it again.

Today in Berlin, 200,000 Germans gathered at a rally and waived American flags without an iota of irony. It was Camelot all over again; this time with a "Dark Knight", as they profoundly wished for an end to George Dubya‘s dark night. Their lips might have still have been mouthing “No”, but they looked at Barack Obama and their eyes said “Yes, Yes, Yes”. Or maybe, "Yes We Can"…

…Barack Obama is a Peter Beinart Democrat; someone who can restore American Leadership because he believes in American Honor, someone who understands that the first step in leading any alliance is to listen to your allies if you want to keep them….

More From Governing Magazine on Pensions

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I generally try to avoid simply discussing other people's information rather than creating my own, but there is a need for fair, non-ideological discussion of the most important issue in public finance and services, and I feel the need to call attention to it. From an honest actuary (how does he make a living?) on pensions:

"Generation X and Gen Y are getting fed up and might not take much more. That's what I'm hearing from a number of younger public employees who responded to my column last month on the incumbent employee conundrum. The gist of their feedback was this: They don't appreciate bearing the brunt of pay cuts and benefits reductions — the ones imposed by employers who try to balance the books on their pension and retiree medical plans by slashing compensation for younger employees and new hires. They'd like to see their elders share in the pain — or at least pay their share."

TELL ME SOMETHING: IF MICHAEL BLOOMBERG IS MAYOR FOR A 3RD TIME, WHAT IS GOING TO STOP HIM FROM LEGISLATING FOR A 4TH TERM?

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Okay, so many of you are going to say this is a stretch, but it isn’t: come next month, and let’s say Michael Bloomberg is elected to a third term as mayor (although I hope not), what is going to prevent him from overturning the term limits law again, and legislating himself a chance at being a four-term mayor? And furthermore, who is going to stop him? Pray tell.

The initial answer is as obvious as my handsome face: nothing. The secondary answer is even more obvious than my charm and wit: no one. Nothing and no one can stop Michael Bloomberg from going for a fourth term if he were to win again next month. Well, maybe the courts can (maybe).  

The Bloomberg Administration: A Review, Part I

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With the Mayoral election nearly upon us, it is time to review what the Bloomberg Administration has done, and what (based on limited information) a Thompson administration might do. (Forget the campaign literature and promises: it’s misleading nonsense). The review is in three parts because the Mayoralty is in reality three jobs. Management, since the Mayor is the CEO of a $60 billion multi-function enterprise, the City of New York. Policy, because in combination with the City Council, State Legislature, Governor, and other local officials, the Mayor of New York City helps to determine the priorities and values of state and local government in New York. And Leadership, because the Mayor is a leader (one of many leaders in both the public and private sectors) of 8 million New Yorkers, with an ability to influence how they live and what they believe, above and beyond the role of local government to compel people to do or not do things. This post is on management.

Throughout this review, you will read about many, many examples of ways in which Mayor Bloomberg has been a great mayor of New York City, including some only those with experience in government are in a position to appreciate. But you will also hear about two disastrous, unjust, self serving, future-wrecking deals – deals with consequences that may be sufficiently severe to undo or exceed, over time, any and all of the good things Mayor Bloomberg has done. (The Mayor has done other, similar things, but has been able to reverse them at least in part; these are far worse and probably cannot be reversed). In recent decades, based on the decisions and non-decisions our elected officials have made, I’ve generally been able to follow a simple rule when voting: don’t vote for any NYC Democrats at the local level, don’t vote for any Republicans at the national level, and don’t vote for an incumbents of either party in the State of New York. The question I’ll have to answer by November 3 is whether to depart from that rule.

Governing Magazine on Pensions

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Any honest actuary, any honest observer, will say the same thing — public services are about to be destroyed by the many years of work-free living older generations have promised themselves but decided younger generations, who will be much poorer, will have to pay for. And the debts older generations are leaving behind. On the public employee pension front, you can read about it in Governing magazine, a leading observer of public service, where a pension analyst proposes an alternative to complete collapse. One that might be implemented in places other than New York State. Here, the state legislature is determined to take every bit of our future before passing or leaving.

Ambulance Blues

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Neil Young on Gatemouth: 'You're all just pissin' in the wind, You don't know it but you are."

Actually, I knew it all along. Two weeks ago, I said:

"this day is bound to be repeated shortly in Citywide form as Mark Green spends the next two weeks of his life preparing for an ass-kicking he can do nothing to prevent, as he become this year’s Liz Holtzman about to get the stuffings taken out of him by this year’s Alan Hevesi (possibly in more than one manner)."

Behind The Recent David and Goliath Story

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In the recent David v. Goliath political story, the David is real (Governor David Paterson); the Goliath (President Obama and his White House staffers) however, are nothing but symbols of so many things wrong with our present democracy. The problem is that so many of our electeds are too compromised to do anything about fixing some of the structural defects within political parties. In both of the major political parties (Democrats and Republicans alike) party-politics tend to suck: simple as that.  

One of pains that come with challenging incumbents is that you are quickly black-balled and politically ostracized: no matter how talented you are; no matter how qualified or experienced you are. Incumbents view their positions from a prism of entitlement. They seem to think that they own the seat once they get elected to it. And how dare some silly insurgent rise up to challenge them? How dare some insurgent be so audacious as to give the people a choice during elections? This is one of the reasons why I am so set on having term-limits at all levels of government. 

Tier V: Part of The Universal Conspiracy on Pensions

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Do we actually have different political parties, different factions within those parties, and different politicians with different points of view? In the past two years, the City and State of New York have decided — at a time of financial crisis, at a time when most Americans have no choice but to work longer — that its teachers should stop working seven years earlier at age 55, and then be paid to do nothing for anyone else ever again. Older generations got to walk out the door (they should spit in the children's faces on the way out) contributing little or nothing to this; after all it was claimed it would cost nothing. And then, immediately the City and State have turned around and decided to cut the pay of all future teachers by five percent, with some advocating a later retirement age for younger generations as well. As if this was in now way in conflict with, had to be justified relative to, and had nothing to do with the decisions previous decisions to enrich retirement benefits for those cashing in and moving out. As if somehow what cost nothing for older and existing public employees was too costly for future public employees.

Tier V, or a higher contribution level for future hires but not existing hires — these proposals add greed to greed, injustice to injustice, and damage to what is left of public services to the existing damages. And here we are coming to the end of a campaign for local office, and no one has said so. This has barely even been spoken of.

New York City’s Non-Employers

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Data on non-employers is out from the 2007 Economic Censuses, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. I’ve briefly summarized a few findings for New York City as compared with the United States in the attached spreadsheet; one can download the spreadsheet if interested in particular industries. The data shows that (as expected based on other data) New Yorkers are more likely than other Americans to work for themselves while not employing anyone else. New York City accounted for 2.75% of U.S. private sector employment in 2007 according to Current Employment Survey data, but it accounted for 3.5% of non-employer establishments according to the Economic Censuses, some 765,857 that year.

The self-employed were not particularly well paid here, averaging just over $44,000 in receipts here, slightly less than the national average. For private sector wage and salary employees, in contrast, those working in Downstate New York typically earn about one-third more than the national average, and far more in Manhattan. Despite the discussion of “mom and pop” stores in New York, the city only accounts for 2.6% of all Retail Trade establishments without employees. By sector, non-employer establishments are particularly common in New York City in Wholesale Trade, Transportation, Information, Health Care and Social Assistance, Arts & Entertainment, and Accommodation & Food Services. However the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services sector account for most non-employers both in NYC and the U.S. as a whole. Although most of the city’s wage and salary jobs are located in Manhattan, moreover, the self-employed are as likely to be located in Brooklyn or Queens. More detailed background and discussion of these industries follows.