Letting go of one’s illusions is a difficult process that takes a long, long time, but I am just about there. From a young age I have been a believer in public services and benefits as a way of providing some measure of assurance for other people, people I rely on every time I purchase a good or service, of a decent life regardless of one’s personal income or standing. After all, I initially chose public service as a career. And I have been a defender of the public institutions when compared with those who were only concerned with their own situation and preference put in less, or get out more, as if the community was a greedy adversary to be beaten in life rather than something one is a part of. Now, however, I see that it is probably hopeless.

Under the current generation of “leaders,” “the community,” in its governmental form, is controlled by insatiable interests and sits on top of those who happen to live in New York City, New York State, and the United States. While promising general, universal benefits in the future, or lower taxes in the present, they have already taken so much out of that future for themselves and self-interest groups that it is unlikely that there will be a functioning school system, usable parks, convenient mass transit, affordable health care, or a livable Social Security retirement stipend for my children’s generation. Even at high future taxes. They’ve blown it all, rationalized or just ignored the near certain effects on others, and they won’t give it back. So perhaps all the time, energy and money directed toward trying to reform or improve our social institutions, particularly out government institutions, would be better spent preparing to do without them.

In the past, on something like the state budget, I would write a post describing what I would do, or what our “leaders” should do. But I’ve had a shift of views recently, and will now base my writings on the assumption that it is hopeless, and our elected officials and those who back them will keep taking and taking until the rest of us have nothing left to lose. Thus they have no reason to care what the rest of us have to say. If it is otherwise, Patterson, Silver and Bruno are free to contact me, and I will go to Albany and tell them what they ought to do and why they ought to do it in person. In the meantime, what I will say is that the budget is a three-year decision.

He could not have known it, but the credit crisis makes Monday, March 17th an ironic day yet appropriate day for David Paterson to have chosen to be sworn in as Governor. And not because it’s Saint Patrick’s Day. Since it is clear that everything didn’t change on Day One, and certainly cannot be expected to change on day 442, I thought it worthwhile to predict the our future under the Paterson Administration, or rather the Paterson, Silver, Bruno and related parties and organizations administration, by examining the past. Since a Census of Governments is being conducted for FY 2007, detailed Census Bureau data on public employment and payroll in 2007 will not be out until the fall. The New York State Department of Labor, however, has recently released revised and updated payroll employment data through 2007 (see attached). Looking at annual data from 1990 to that year, I think we can get a sense of where things are headed, and how New York City is likely to be affected. If you are planning on enjoying St. Patrick’s Day festivities, don’t read this until you are done celebrating and prepared to merge your personal hangover with the national one.