Compared with many of those posting on transit geek sites I have participated in, and the signal engineers at New York City Transit where I once worked, I’m not an expert in subway and road capacity. But compared with those who have been making an issue of it, well, in the country of the blind the one-eyed man is king, so I’ve elected to provide an overview of what I know in a post. Before getting technical, however, the most important thing about the capacity of the region’s rail transit service is this: there is more room on the tracks than the region will ever be able to use during most of the day; the only capacity problems are during the AM and PM weekday peak periods, and the only severe capacity problems are during the peak hour within those periods. Meanwhile, the streets of Manhattan and some parts of the outer boroughs are congested for much of the day, and in some cases increasingly congested as the day goes on. That is because during the AM rush hour, the capacity of the bridges and tunnels entering Manhattan, and their approaches, limits the number of vehicles on the streets, but as the day goes on more and more are present and trying to move. During peak hour most people are already taking transit, so congestion pricing is more likely to shift drivers to transit during the off peak period, when there is plenty of room to add more riders and, if needed, trains.

The mainstream media is now all over the housing bubble, but the housing market moves slowly, and we are a year or two away from really experiencing the bust. The fallout is likely to raise some rather nasty local government issues. First, the housing price boom, while sticking it to first time buyers, allowed local governments to increase property tax charges without voting to increase rates, but as property values and property transactions fall local governments will be left with a choice between service cutbacks and higher tax rates that they will have to vote for. There is already a property tax revolt underway in Florida, where soaring tax bills (exacerbated for tenants, commercial property owners, new buyers and snowbirds by rules that keep taxes low for long-time homeowners) are running into plunging property values. Indeed, fiscal problems are beginning to afflict local governments nationwide, despite a decent economy. Second, tightening lending standards and, in some markets, over-building is likely to lead to a glut of for-sale housing. The vacancy rate for owner-occupied housing is now at a historic high, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. So what will happen to the excess suburban housing? Will it be purchased by investors and subdivided into apartments, allowing the working class and perhaps even the poor to move to areas with good schools and available jobs, but reducing the fiscal insulation suburbanites receive from the less well off by living in separate local tax jurisdictions and threatening their property values? The free market is great, it seems, until it works to the disadvantage of the less well off.

Word came recently that a $2 billion expansion of the Javits Convention Center may not be good enough, and that only a $4 billion expansion will do. Per the New York Times “the Spitzer administration quickly concluded that the existing plan would have little economic effect and would provide only a modest amount of new exhibit space, while underestimating the potential costs by $1 billion. But even as the Spitzer administration’s review was under way, construction costs in the city were rising rapidly; city officials said delays were costing $17 million a month.” It has probably been about a decade since I was asked to write a memo on the convention business and NYC’s role in it while at a former job, but I suspect that what I found then continues to be true today. The biggest impediment New York City has in attracting virtually all conventions, and tourists in general, is the number, availability and cost of hotel rooms. At the time, New York City had fewer hotel rooms than Chicago, a city half the size. Last year New York City accounted for 2.7% of total national employment, but just 2.1% of total accommodations (hotel, motel, etc.) employment.

Almost six months ago, when I started this three part series on the reasons why I felt that Barack (Barry) Hussein Obama should run for the US presidency, many people didn’t feel me; those two columns didn’t generate the usual responses that my writings on New York’s political cesspool generally do. Plus, after all: this enigma (Obama), calling himself a Negro (black-man), had no chance of winning; right?

Truth be told, it appears to me that most of the people here on Room Eight (along with most of the readers), really want me to focus my writings on Brooklyn’s political gossip, spiced with a lil history of my personal involvement in some of the in-fighting. It’s what draws many of them to Room Eight (www.r8ny.com); it’s what makes me the most read (and most commented on) blogger of this particular colony of political writers. It’s what makes this blog so popular in Brooklyn especially (and in some other parts of the city too). Political gossip and credible innuendo is sexy; it’s like a catfight (for men). So; a lot of people will probably hate this particular column for various reasons; I must admit that the hate will be somewhat understandable given the true nature of this country; which despite all its great attributes: is still very racist.

The 2007 edition of Prime News will be mailed this week to @1,500 political activists.

Prime News is the publication my partner Stu Osnow and I produce each year that lists the most complete election results published. It also includes information about what we at Prime New York are up to.

If you can't wait to get it in the mail or are not on our mailing list, you can get 2007 Prime News on our website at –

http://primeny.com/index.html

Today's news from London made me think of something. Some time after 9/11, I wrote an essay (not here, R8 didn't exist) about the possible need to limit auto and delivery access to Manhattan Island, and perhaps other islands, to those with some kind of security clearance. In addition to perhaps tolling the free bridges.

I hope, with all the resources it has been given, the federal government will prevent another 9/11 or, worse, a successful attack with WMD. I accept that no one can stop a suicide bomber pedestrian blowing themself up on a street or in a subway car, though the number of people killed by such is likely to be in the overall scheme of things low. That is a risk all of us must take. In between are the sort of car and truck bombs of the sort ravaging Iraq and nearly hitting London today. We leave ourself open to them because the one civil right Americans have been unwilling to sacrifice in the wake of 9/11 is the right to drive, as the congestion pricing issue (and others) shows. But once one goes off in Times Square, kills a couple of hundred people and maims far more, we will have both congestion pricing and security clearance. Too bad political expediency requires we wait until then.

Not wanting to devalue their on-street parking permits, but not wanting to be accused of doing nothing, it is clear that the State Legislature is looking for a congestion pricing alternative. But the only alternative to rationing street space by price is rationing by queue; congestion will rise to the point where there are no more people who can stand it, and the rest will either use other means to travel or relocate themselves (and their businesses?) elsewhere. Once the state has decided that the only acceptable limit to congestion is congestion itself, and thus the city has no choice but to live with it, however, taking away street space, and taking other measures to reduce traffic flow, will become reasonable. Such measures wouldn’t make congestion worse, because congestion would simply be as bad at it is going to be anyway. The only difference is that the general public would get the benefit of alternative uses of the street. And how about the revenue that congestion pricing would bring? With space that tight, it becomes impossible to avoid committing traffic infractions such as blocking the box, impeding emergency vehicles, and getting stuck in bus lanes. Ruthless enforcement (you decided to drive here and didn’t want to pay? Tough!) could bring in the cash in fines, rather than fees. Indeed according to a Daily News article last week, when it comes to scarce “free” on-street parking spaces in my neighborhood, this is already happening.

Youngsters have a rhyme that they say or chant, whenever they accuse another of lying; it goes like this: “liar, liar, pants on fire” (if it’s a male being accused); or “liar, liar, panties on fire” (if it’s a female being accused of not telling the truth). So there is a story presently circulating in political Brooklyn that accuses three people of lying through their teeth; some are saying that any minute now, the noses on these three individuals will start growing inch by inch-just like Pinocchio’s did when he lied. Could this be true?

Let me introduce the three individuals involved: Vito Lopez, Bernie Catcher and Shawndya Simpson. Mr. Lopez is the Democrat’s county leader-having succeeded the disgraced Clarence Norman a year or so ago. Some say his lies start with his residency- which Brooklyn’s District Attorney (Charles Hynes) refuses to look into- since many claims that he really lives in Queens, but represents Brooklyn’s Bushwick area in the New York State Assembly. Mr. Catcher is the district leader of the 59 AD, but most insiders say that he really lives outside the district. Ms. Simpson is a civil court judge from King’s County, who insiders claim lives in South Orange, New Jersey. Since I am told that they all read my blog, I expect that they (or their minions) will respond to this column in the comment section, ensuring a nice discussion on the contents.

Recently, the New York State Assembly passed legislation favoring same-sex marriages, despite the fact that a federal statute (Defense of Marriage Act) legally defines marriage as strictly between a man and a woman. Proponents of this measure have argued that it’s about equality, civil-rights, justice and human-rights for all; but is it really? To me, the same-sex marriage debate is ostensibly an attempt by advocates to redefine traditional marriage, which for eons in civil society, has been in essence: quasi-religious ceremonial arrangements/agreements between men and women; which society, culture, religion and government, sanctioned, blessed, approved, encouraged, formalized, legalized and such; for myriad positive and sensible reasons.

In case you missed it, Gotham Gazette posted an excellent article on the average earnings of workers in their 20s, both in New York City and nationally, over time here. The data show that workers in their 20s today, particularly men, even college graduates (of which there are more), earn less in cash income than they once did, both in New York City and nationally. The situation for non-cash income is even worse. As a result of two tier union contracts and other two-tier personnel policies, my generation was the first to not receive defined benefit pensions. But young people today are unlikely to even receive health insurance, as businesses increasingly hire them as “independent contractors” to deny health insurance to them while providing it to existing employees from prior generations. To this, add the higher student loan amounts today’s graduates are burdened by, generated in part by excessive cost inflation in higher education (which presumably provides more income for more people). Forget the fear that the next generation will not be as well off; it has already happened. And public policies, attentive to the wants of senior citizens to the virtual exclusion of all else, particularly in New York State, pile debts and other burdens on to the future, for those 20-somthings to someday pay. In yet another shot in the generational war, state and local governments are refusing to allow people to know how large those burdens will be.