Polls – Behind the Numbers


You might recall the flap last year over the differences between the various public polls on the Mayoral Election and the actual results. Freddie Ferrer supporters claimed that inaccurate polls doomed his candidacy. This wasn’t the first and won’t be the last time candidates will complain about these polls.

What is has been missed by many is that there is a major difference between the NY1, Quinnipiac and Marist polls and the private polls conducted by political campaigns- a difference that often explains why so many election results are quite different than the poll projections.

Lloyd Grove’s Faulty Memory


Friday’s Daily News had this little gem in Lloyd Grove’s gossip column who was taking time out from making fun of his rival s at the Post –

Here’s another reason why I miss Teresa Heinz Kerry – she’s fabulous gossip fodder.

Who can forget, for instance, how the Mozambique-born billionaire would boast to black audiences on the 2004 presidential campaign trail: "I am African-American"?

Who can forget it?

Who can remember it?

Who votes – John Marchi’s District


In honor of retiring Senator John Marchi and because this might be the first time since 1978 there could be a serious contest here, the 2nd installment of who votes is about Marchi’s 24th Senate District.

These percentages are based on data in the Prime New York voter file and these reports come with the usual caveats – ethnic data is based on last names so are not 100% accurate, past voting behavior is not always predicative, etc.

Estimated Percentages

Democrats            40%

Republicans            36%

Primary History


Since there has been a lot of talk recently about whether statewide Democratic candidates will get 25% of the vote at the State Committee or will have to petition and whether receiving the designation of the State Committee was worth anything, I thought it might valuable to look at the history of Statewide Democratic Primaries.

The history does not go back far. Statewide Primaries began in 1968. Up until then, each party’s State Committee chose candidates with voters having no direct say in the process.

The change continued the Committees having a role but not a decisive one. Each Committee would have a meeting (or convention). Candidates receiving 50% or more of the vote became the Party’s designated candidate. Any candidate receiving 25% or more could also run in the Primary. Others could submit petitions signed by enrolled Party members to vote. The original petition requirements were harsher than they are. But it is still a difficult task. Now candidates in the Democratic or Republican parties must submit at least 15,000 signatures, with at least 100 signatures from ½ of New York’s congressional districts.

Cheap shots in the Daily News


Last week I criticized the Post. Today I’ll go after the News for an article in Sunday’s paper – “War Chests as Toy Chests”. The article claims state legislators are using their campaign accounts for “exotic travel, champagne lifestyles and personal pleasures”. And some of the examples, like Joe Bruno’s trip to Italy do sound like abuses. But many of the others sure look like legitimate expanses to me.

 For example:

 Assemblyman Richard Brodsky uses campaign money to buy meat that he then serves at a barbecue for his supporters. That’s clearly a campaign expense. The News complaint seems to be that he buys the meat while in Montana visiting his wife’s family.

Who votes? – first in a series


In response to numerous requests (actually just one), I plan to periodically publish reports on who the likely voters are in the upcoming "hot" elections. These percentages are based on data in the Prime New York voter file and these reports come with the usual caveats – ethnic data is based on last names so are not 100% accurate, past voting behavior is not always predicative, etc. Here we go with the 11th CD Democratic Primary, the seat being vacated by Major Owens.

Likely Primary Voters Estimated Percentages

Blacks    60%

Jewish   15%

Cop Killers, Funerals & Hyprocrites


Remember back in December when a New York City police officer was murdered? The Post made a big stink about Shelly Silver saying he wouldn’t attend the funeral. At the time, I wondered if the Post was going to be responsible for a new policy – that state legislative leaders like Jow Bruno & Shelly would now be attacked for not attending funerals for all law enforcement officers killed in the line of duty. I now learn, thanks to today’s Albany Times-Union that 2 officers in NY State were killed in the last month. Looking back I find no stories or editorials in the Post demanding Bruno & Silver attend the funerals. Can anyone come up with a reason that the Post doesn’t seem to care anymore? Of can it be that they got their cheap shot in at Shelly and didn’t need to do it again?

Anti-Catholic Politicians


Did anybody notice this quote in today’s Newsday

Catholic leaders opposed to the measure "should spend more time protecting little boys from pedophile priests."

Who said it? Some left-wing Democrat who hates people of faith? No.  It was a conservative Republican – Congressman Peter King! I await the reports on FOX about King’s "thinly veiled" attacks on the church.